S&P
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Payrolls was greeted near overnight highs, in a narrowly ranging consolidation, centered around this morning’s 2096.75 bias-up signal. Its spike up to 2108.75 immediately neutralized yesterday’s 2103.25 unfinished business above. Reacting down to 2102.00 was recovered to 2110.00.
Now 2103.25 is being attacked as support.
Maintaining a gap up above yesterday morning’s 2102.00 high would enable trending up into the afternoon. Otherwise, today’s intraday trend still can reverse down if 2101.00 and 2098.25 don’t hold through the open.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Employment Situation coming.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s bullish scenario began unfolding at the opening ticks. But surging substantially and then triggering bias-up couldn’t prevent sliding into the noon hour until the final hour..Holding the session’s 2082.00 pullback limit allowed the final hour’s 10-point bounce to at least test the morning’s lows, but not to recover them. “Unfinished business above” was left outstanding at the morning’s 2103.25 bias-up target.
Overnight action’s new info…
Thursday’s late rally initially extended a couple of points to 2094.00, but still reacted down into negative territory at 2087.50. Europe’s opens triggered more of a spike up than a surge, soon attacking 2097.50. A 7-point slide retraced almost all of the spike, but only briefly, as 2097.50 is now being retested.
If, then…
Buyers didn’t gain traction yesterday, so resuming yesterday morning’s rally this morning would require gapping up above yesterday morning’s 2102.00 high. That’s only another 5-points above the current Globex highs, with a catalyst coming next hour — the Employment Situation report. By the same token, sellers didn’t gain traction yesterday, either, so gapping down in reaction to the payrolls report must open at or under 2082.00 to extend deeper. That’s the rally’s pullback limit, so any lower would threaten the recovery. This being Friday, attracting sponsorship for extending a knee-jerk reaction may be more difficult than attracting sponsorship for sustaining its reaction.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Preliminary indications are not available ahead of an Employment Situation report.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2104.00 | 2096.75 |
| …would target | 2110.50 | 2103.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2092.00 | 2084.75 |
| …would target | 2086.50 | 2079.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
A funny thing happened on the way to recovery highs…
Gapping up just enough to qualify for Thursday’s bullish scenario, surging substantially and then triggering bias-up, just couldn’t prevent sliding into the noon hour until the final hour.
The slide began too late and was too slow to prevent forming “unfinished business above” at the morning’s 2103.25 bias-up target. The session’s 2082.00 pullback limit didn’t require being tested, but it defined the session low anyway.
The final hour’s bounce attacking 2092.00 held at or under the morning’s bias environment lows. The near-term trend hasn’t reversed back up. Gapping above the prior session’s high would again be bullish, albeit much more difficult Friday.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Bookends?
Closing bounce trying to duplicate open’s surge.
Whether originating from the open or from the open’s surge, a pullback had room down to 2082.00 before even threatening the uptrend. Now the open’s surge to 2102.00 has reversed down to 2082.00.
RSIs diverged positively into the test, which didn’t resolve up quickly. Fresh lows had been probed after the bias environment began lapsing at 2:30, but they weren’t rejected by fresh highs going into the final hour. And now an inflection point is being tested at 2086.75 but not yet exceeded.
Back under 2084.00 would trigger another downleg. Otherwise, there remains potential for extending higher into the close, but not necessarily aggressively, not necessarily substantially, and not necessarily.