S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
.Choppy ranging around unchanged after Friday’s payrolls report didn’t alter the near-term attraction back down to retest prior lows, triggered under 1.1035-1.1045
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s late bounce had peaked before recovering the 1365.50 pullback limit, which Friday’s payrolls report leveraged to trigger a spike down to 1336.30. Already reacting back up to probe $6 above 1365.50 doesn’t lessen the likelihood of retesting the spike down’s low. Closing above 1365.50 would likely delay it until retesting the highs up to 1385.00..
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Barely failing to recover the 19.90 pullback limit Thursday opened the door to reacting sharply lower on Friday’s payrolls report. But spiking down to 19.28 was soon recovered well back up into positive territory at 20.15. Only ranging around 19.90 instead of closing above it doesn’t yet reinstate the potential to retest prior highs.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Another shallow pullback avoided touching 174-10/174-24 and maintained the upside momentum to probe fresh highs up to 177-09. There is no further unfinished business above in this leg.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Testing 46.00 resistance early Friday was reversed down sharply to retest Thursday’s 44.85 low by a dime. Its test reacted back up to 45.00-45.40 which must hold to maintain this leg’s attraction down to 43.00.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming Friday morning still needed to recover 2.85 to signal the pullback had ended, and that the gap back up to Friday’s 2.98 close was going to be filled, potentially on the way to higher highs..
Mid-day Update… Still a live session.
Fresh highs keeping alive the upside momentum.
The post-close pre-Brexit 2119.50 high was the next higher resistance above the 2115.00 objective. It’s just a prior high. It’s not an objective or target that fulfills buying pressure.
But testing it intraday makes closing back under it likely to extend into another deeper detour below.
2119.50 and its bias-up signal 1 tick higher were just touched at 1:30. Too late to invoke the grace period or to trigger, and too shallow to invalidate the no-bias. Probing higher anyway would be “no-bias trending” and doomed to failure.
Now having probed a fresh session high during the afternoon bias environment, exiting the bias environment back under a prior high or low could meltdown into the close. Otherwise, be very careful stepping in front of the uptrend.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jul 11, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s econ calendar has no likelihood of influencing price action. The week does get busier, though, including Fed speakers.
Labor Market Conditions Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2127.00 | 2119.75 |
| …would target | 2132.25 | 2125.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2120.00 | 2113.00 |
| …would target | 2114.75 | 2107.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Entrenched. Like yesterday.
Yesterday’s open was strong-handed buyers, too.
At least two elements through this morning’s opening 15 minutes of volatility indicated the gap up would hold and the rally would extend. Sellers weren’t influencing price significantly, 
and the period formed uptrending.
Just maintaining an opening gap through the open tends to extend further. And further. And further.
Any cause for concern would be due linked to yesterday’s reaction. Tracking the bullish template didn’t prevent reversing back down through the morning and afternoon bias environments. Always suggesting weak-handed sponsorship, and holding the maximum 2082.00 pullback limit – it wasn’t destructive, but it was productive.
RSIs were slow to get overbought, and the next higher objective at 2115.00 has been attacked to within 5 ticks. The pullback limit was probed for 3 minutes down to 2110.25, and that didn’t hold. A shallower pullback than yesterday is still possible, and could still be relatively deep — like down to 2104.00.
Keeping sellers from retaking control should still extend higher today, and not just range sideways.