S&P
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Choppy ranging around Friday’s 2125.50 high has twice tested this morning’s 2124.00 bias-down signal as support. Its reactions have repeatedly attacked the 2129.75 bias-up target to within 3 ticks. Coiling just under it ahead of the open suggests it will almost literally explode higher.
Like the overnight spike up to 2133.00, exploding higher still wouldn’t ensure trending up this morning — not without at least maintaining above Friday’s high through the open. Reversing back into negative territory could begin backing-and-filling into the afternoon.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… But, wait, there’s more!
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Only an errant tick exceeded our long-standing 2125.25 objective. Its test Friday entered the session’s attractions by gapping up above Thursday’s 2102.00 high. It was confirmed in-play by maintaining the gap up through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. Exiting Friday afternoon’s bias environment above prior highs then marginalized sellers for the balance of the day. The close was a new trend high.
Overnight action’s new info…
Friday’s closing action had dipped to test 2120.00, where Sunday night’s open ranged narrowly. Firming back toward 2125.25 soon spiked up to 2133.00 on news of Japan;s stimulus. The singular surge was never extended while consolidating back to 2128.00. Blipping down to 2123.00 after Europe’s opens has ranged back to 2129.00.
If, then…
Friday’s new trend high close already requires another eventual higher close. Not necessarily a consecutive higher close, regardless of Sunday night’s probe of new highs. Being a singular leg and not complex, that overnight high is not a “new Globex trend extreme” which would require intraday retest. So, exiting the open in negative territory could resume Friday’s late reaction down from 2125.25, and put the market on defense for today or longer. But exceeding 2125.25 through the open could trend up into the afternoon.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2126.50 would be likely to trigger the 2124.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2134.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2129.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up target. Exiting the open under 2122.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2131.00 | 2124.00 |
| …would target | 2136.75 | 2129.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2124.25 | 2117.25 |
| …would target | 2117.50 | 2110.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET TESTED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
2089.75 is the lower-end of the pre-Brexit session two weeks ago. Closing above it last Friday had created the requirement to probe that session’s upper-end, targeting 2125.25.
An interim corrective dip was recovered to close back above 2089.75. And then Friday’s rally touched 2125.25. Barely. The final hour only trended down, but it was too late for a durable downleg to begin.
There’s no higher calculable objective. But a new trend high close on Fridays all but requires an eventual higher close. Nothing can prevent another interim pullback, but it would likely be only a temporary correction.
We’ll look at this in more detail during Saturday Review, starting at 9:30am ET.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Pre-close View… Big target met.
Never underestimate Friday trending.
A bullish Brexit reaction would have targeted 2125.25. Retesting the pre-Brexit high has targeted 2125.25. The interim reaction down never affected the patterns which produced that calculable objective.
2125.25 was just met. Its test neutralized overbought RSIs at the prior high — now 1-minute RSI is diverging negatively. And the test is reacting down.
2125.25 was met on a very extended buy signal. It was triggered above 2111.75 when the morning bias environment was entered near the apex of a Symmetrical Triangle.
The bias environment exit was above all prior highs, which is nearly impossible to reverse down on Fridays. Back under 2122.50 might fit in a dip to 2119.00 or 2117.25. But this is the week’s most difficult time to attract counter-trend sponsorship — a dip is only viable because of all the buying pressure satisfied at 2125.25.