S&P
Mid-day Update… False alarm.
25-point rally into the afternoon.
When the 2065.00 bias-up signal was recovered 1 minute too late to trigger, I was skeptical
Overstated? Not warranted? No. But clearly not necessary. Rejecting the late dip down to 2061.50 was extended into the bias environment exit, piercing its 2077.00 objective. Rallying throughout the noon hour has recovered to 2085.50.
Exceeding this afternoon’s 2083.00 bias-up target at 1:20 would renew the bias-up signal, next targeting at least 2087.50. It’s still a bias-up environment so long as 2077.00 isn’t rejected through 1:30 — which could find a deep air pocket back down to 2065.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jul 1, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: One or two staggered post-open reports have a track record of influencing price action. Afternoon trending will be difficult as the three-day weekend’s illiquidity draws nearer.
*PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
*Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Bond market early close
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2095.75 | 2077.00 |
| …would target | 2091.50 | 2083.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2077.50 | 2069.00 |
| …would target | 2072.00 | 2063.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET TESTED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Delayed start.
Choppy post-open action.
Congestion around the 2065.00 bias-up signal gradually resolved down to 2061.00. Its reaction up overlapped the 2065.00 bias-up signal in time to invoke the grace period. Its reaction down toward 2061.00 triggered late no-bias.
The bias-up signal was touched again 1 minute later. Just 1 minute earlier would have triggered noN-bias. Buy signals would be valid. Retesting overnight highs up to 2077.00 would be likely.
The market is ignoring the 1 minute difference. NoN-bias wouldn’t have put into play the 2071.00 bias-up target. It is being probed now by 1 point.
No-bias would require retesting the 2065.00 bias-up signal. That would make it difficult to trend much higher this morning.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Rallying 17 points since Europe’s opens, from 2056.50 up to 2073.75, has been retraced by 61.8% down to 2062.50. That’s bouncing a little now, but dipping much lower much past the open would start to suggest this morning won’t rally. Otherwise, overnight lows will likely be retested up to 2077.00
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.