S&P
The First Trade… Exuberance, of some sort.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s open was greeted by another single-minded relentless overnight rally from 2027.00 to 2044.00. Its resolution had to differ from the prior day, so it gapped up and trended up through every timing window. The bias environment exit and final hour entry each were overlapping their prior timing window highs. Extending to fresh highs at 2064.50 through the 3:10-3:20 timing window was the cash session high. The futures close firmed to fresh highs at 2067.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
As if the relentless rally couldn’t get any more odd, post-close buyback announcements by a bevy of big banks triggered a surge that attacked 2075.00 — all during maintenance. Globex re-opened at 2072.00-2073.00 and trended down to 2056.50 through Europe’s opens. Rallying since then has retraced back up to fresh highs. At least, probing the open up to 2073.75, while the maintenance high lies 1 point higher.
If, then…
Wednesday’s rally came within 3 ticks of Friday morning’s post-open bounce high at 2064.75. That’s natural resistance. That’s also a 61.8% retracement of the drop from Thursday’s 2019.50 post-close high. Which is also natural resistance. These independent resistance levels can be probed intraday to any degree — like 2077.00 — but closing negative would confirm this rally has been only a temporary corrective bounce, perhaps the product of quarter-end window dressing, and that it has ended. And that would confirm Friday and Monday’s trend change signal. Regardless, the rally is vulnerable to at least a corrective dip, as it has been since Monday’s close..
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2061.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2065.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2067.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2075.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2071.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal next targeting 2077.00.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2073.50 | 2065.00 |
| …would target | 2079.50 | 2071.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2066.00 | 2057.50 |
| …would target | 2059.50 | 2051.00 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday’s rally came within 3 ticks of Friday morning’s post-open bounce high at 2064.75. Intraday patterns had independently targeted just 1 tick higher. The futures close probed both up to 2067.25. That’s natural resistance.
That’s 85 points off of Monday morning (and afternoon) 1981.50 lows. It’s also a 61.8% retracement of the drop from Thursday’s 2019.50 post-close high. That’s natural resistance.
The rally is vulnerable to at least a corrective dip. Just add that vulnerability to the list of potentially bearish catalysts ignored this since Monday’s close.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Gravitational pull.
Relentless rally day attacking “higher prior lows.”
Today’s session is behaving like a “session long rally.” Which is interesting, because there was no setup for it. 
But every timing window has probed the prior timing window’s high.
There just hasn’t been an exception. Even if price were to reverse down aggressively and plunge, this last timing window of the day has already probed fresh highs. Even the noon hour probed fresh highs, and that’s usually the exception.
No exceptions today, as the rally is relentless.
One sell signal was pierced during at the noon hour’s exit, and it was minimally productive. Otherwise, massive uplegs have defined the session.
Already coming to within 3 ticks of the highest objective at 2065.00 has created potential for reversing down to the 2057.00 area. The rally has gained traction, so a dip would likely settle in the noon hour’s range.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Wednesday to test Tuesday’s gap probably only delays the inevitable retest of recent lows, since Tuesday’s reaction down had stopped optimistically short of filling the gap back to Monday’s close.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s gap up didn’t immediately recover the 1329.60 that would have served by proxy to invalidate Tuesday’s close under the 1322.40. pullback limit. But it doesn’t prevent extending higher anyway to retest last Thursday’s 1363.00 overnight spike high.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Wednesday’s open easily retested Thursday night’s spike high, presumably still targeting 18.80 so long as 18.00 now holds as support.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Already having fulfilled the requirement to retest last Thursday nights 173-25 high Tuesday, it’s interesting that overnight action only ranged narrowly while stocks rallied sharply. The excuse for a pullback was ignored, as it was Wednesday while stocks rallied even more sharply. The 174-26 target remains intact.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s late surge extended higher overnight, and then also intraday Wednesday into and out of a bullish EIA report. Closing back under 48.35 would signal the upside momentum was lapsing, which might allow raising the sell signal.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Wednesday was reversed back into the rally’s 2.86-2.91 target area that had been fulfilled Tuesday. This rally leg has extended considerably without only shallow pullbacks, so Wednesday’s key-reversal is more vulnerable to reversing down. But Wednesday’s gap up above all prior highs will want to be filled.