S&P
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Too little, too late?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday night’s narrow sideways range had broken through its 2926.50 upper-end to 2932.00 in reaction to GDP. Having originated 60-90 minutes pre-open, the breakout was reversed back down through the open to the overnight range’s lower-end at the 2919.50 bias-down targte. The reversal attempt failed, likely marginalizing sellers for the day. Separately, holding tests of both bias-down parameters put into play offsetting tests of the 2934.00 and 2940.75 bias-up parameters. They weren’t required to be met because the rejection was late, but their tests were fulfilled anyway. Also met was “unfinished business” from prior sessions at 2942.00 and 2942.75 by Friday’s last-minute surge to 2942.75. The surge came too late for its new high close to create new unfinished business.
Overnight action’s new info…
A painstakingly narrow 2940.50-2943.00 range developed well through midnight before showing any signs of life. It was a brief surge to 2944.75, and then a reaction down to 2941.25. Another surge to higher highs attacked 2947.00, but no less brief, as its reaction down fell to lower lows at 2940.00. And now a consolidation there is probing lower. Now the 2939.35 earlier Globex low is being probed as support. Each of the overnight probes to higher highs was a singular surge, and each reacted back down under Friday’s high. So, neither qualifies as a “new Globex trend extreme” that would otherwise require intraday retest.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
New trend highs overnight that don’t qualify as a “new Globex trend extreme” does not prevent their intraday retest, but it’s not required. No other “unfinished business” above is outstanding, but that doesn’t prevent extending higher anyway. Borrowing (and slightly twisting) Newton’s first law, the uptrend remains intact until a reversal setup appears. And then that setup must make impact. A bearish Globex-flip setup is trying to form, as an overnight probe above the prior 2942.75 intraday high has been reversed to probe under the 2939.35 earlier Globex low. Meanwhile, be aware that Friday-Monday setups are less reliable, and also breaking under the 2935.75 last relative low would be helpful confirmation. If fully formed but not triggered, the setup’s consequence should be as bullish as it could have been bearish, which means influencing the morning’s trend.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2946.50 would be likely to trigger the 2944.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2940.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2940.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2936.50 bias-down signal.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2944.75 | 2944.50 |
| …would target | 2948.75 | 2950.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2934.50 | 2936.50 |
| …would target | 2927.50 | 2929.50 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday was almost greeted from within another narrow sideways range resisted by 2926.50. 
But the knee-jerk reaction to GDP had surged to 2932.00. Then its pre-open retest was reversed back down into the overnight range anyway. That’s the normal consequence of breaking an overnight range within 60-90 minutes of the open.
Sellers were attempting to trend on a Friday morning. They failed, so they became marginalized. Separately, holding tests of both the 2919.50 and 2924.50 bias-down parameters put into play offsetting tests of the 2934.00 and 2940.75 bias-up parameters. They weren’t required because the rejection was late, but their tests were fulfilled anyway.
“Unfinished business” from prior sessions at 2942.00 and 2942.75 was also fulfilled by Friday’s last-minute surge to 2942.75. Surging earlier might have qualified as a new trend high close on a Friday, but this came too late, so new new unfinished business was created.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEK’S SATURDAY REVIEW.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s knee-jerk reaction to GDP blipped-down to a fresh low attacking 1.1155 before snapping back up to Thursday’s 1.1200 high, and then higher. The bounce still has room up to 1.1235 before signaling a recovery underway. No unfinished business remains outstanding below.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Blipping-down to 1276.00 in reaction to Friday’s GDP snapped back up through Thursday’s 1285.00 high to attack 1291.00, the highest level in 2 weeks and essentially confirming that a bottom is forming.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
14.88 held as support through Friday’s GDP reaction that snapped back up to attack the highest levels in 2 weeks above 15.00. As with Friday, any early strength coming out of the weekend would be credible for extending intraday.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Only touching the 146-30 sell signal during Friday’s GDP reaction was deep enough to snap back up to fresh recovery highs, testing “higher prior lows and filling a 2-week old gap at 147-22. The gap-fill held, and back under 147-06 would now suffice to signal one more low underway targeting 145-24.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s late break under the 65.55 pullback limit proved prescient as Friday gapped down to the 64.35 sell signal and extended to attack 62.25 before noon. A second consecutive lower close Monday would confirm, but the reversal is premature, so recovering 64.10 prior highs is likelier.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[Rolling coverage forward from May which trades at a 4-cent premium to May]… Thursday’s recovery to the 2.54 buy signal extended higher immediately to 2.60, now requiring a second consecutive higher close Monday to confirm a bottom has formed.
Mid-day Update… Option C.
Sideways is a direction, too.
Especially on Fridays, a failed early trending attempt tends to marginalize its sponsorship. 
Sellers attacked the overnight range’s lower-end down to 2919.25 while testing the 2919.50 bias-down target as RSIs diverged positively. That alone would undermine sellers, but the 2924.50 bias-down signal also failed to trigger.
So, sellers are marginalized. The bias environment recovered up to 2934.75.
The noon hour was flat-to-lower, dipping 5 points. And now this afternoon has triggered no-bias. The next hour may range sideways, or flat-to-higher. There’s room up to the 2838.25 bias-up signal without requiring retracement back down.
Resuming the rally when the bias environment is lapsing would be entirely credible for extending higher into the weekend. It wouldn’t be required, drifting lower can’t be ruled out, but ranging sideways into the weekend is only slightly likelier.