S&P
The First Trade… Round-two.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Understatement of the decade: Friday’s open gapped down sharply. But its 2031.50 opening print was well above the overnight limit-down at 1999.00. Rallying through the first half-hour attacked 2065.00, then the balance of the session trended back down. The final hour’s blip-down under the open’s low to 2022.25 reacted up stunningly to 2040.00. Even more stunningly, the cash session’s last 10 minutes were reversed down to 2026.50, extending to fresh lows at 2016.25.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open gapped down to 2014.00 and slide further to 2001.50. Flat-to-higher ignored China devaluing the Yuan again, soon firming back up to the opening print. And then through it, overlapping Friday afternoon’s cash session low by 2 points. Firming through Europe’s opens touched 2022.50 and has reversed down since then, now testing 2005.00 .
If, then…
Thursday night’s 1999.00 limit-down halt requires a retest, probably down to 1993.50, with further potential down to 1980.00. There’s not much time available to isolate the fresh lows by satisfying the retest and already recovering into positive territory pre-open. Not isolating fresh lows would be trickier to form a trading low this morning, with a negative close today confirming a trend change.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2004.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2008.00 bias-down target at 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2013.25 would be likely at least to trigger the 2018.75 bias-down signal.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2043.50 | 2034.00 |
| …would target | 2051.00 | 2041.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2028.25 | 2018.75 |
| …would target | 2017.50 | 2008.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Sunday night’s chaRTroom link
Globex re-opens at 6:00pm ET, and it should be fun. That was already likely after Friday’s session. But weekend developments offer potential for another “hope springs eternal” bounce.
A petition to re-vote is gathering steam, supported by multiple Groucho Marxes, Seymour Butts and Mickey Mouses. Veto powers by Scotland and Ireland are being researched (by U.S. Republican delegates, too). Yet, many other countries are clearly heading to their own EUxit votes, too. Weekend elections in Spain are also skewing the playing field. Another fun week lies ahead!
See you there tonight… CLICK HERE TO ENTER
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday afternoon’s gained traction in a hard fought battle that barely probed 2035.00 and 2036.00 relevant prior lows at the bias environment exit and the final hour’s entry. The 3:10-3:20 timing window was much more decisive, dropping more than 10 points to fresh session post-open lows at 2022.25.
That retraced 61.8% of the 66-point rally from overnight lows. And then some, suggesting that lower price would be met — at least, undermining the sponsorship of any reaction up.
Undermining the reaction’s sponsorship didn’t prevent attacking 2040.00, 17 points off the low. That was similar in principle to the earlier blip-up to 2038.00. The afternoon’s bias-down detour was similar, too. Hope springs eternal. The reaction’s resolution was similar, too. Already retracing 61.8% into the cash session close, fresh lows were probed down to 2016.25.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Join us in the chaRTroom here for this weekend’s Saturday Review at 9:30am ET.
Pre-close View… Traction.
Selling pressure confirmed.
Trending down through the noon hour had triggered bias-down, stopping 1 point short of the 2035.00 bias-down target. Bouncing during the bias environment attacked 2045.00. 
The bias environment was exited at or under the noon hour’s low.
Traction? Maybe.
The final hour was entered at or under the bias environment’s low. That’s traction. Trending down to fresh afternoon lows through the 3:10-3:20 timing window would confirm.
And the 3:10-3:20 timing window just trended down to 2022.25. That required absorbing a last-minute corrective bounce to 2038.25, so sellers seem intent on retaining control.
Probing under the 1999.00 overnight low would target 1993.50 (typo’d earlier as 2093.50), whether today or tomorrow. Meeting it today would greet the weekend vulnerable to gapping down sharply Monday. Leaving the attraction outstanding would help to resume the decline after the weekend.