S&P
Mid-day Update… Getting acclimated.
Consolidating under prior lows.
Room down to 1980.00 doesn’t have to be touched, let alone probed. In fact, this morning’s drop extended down to 1981.50 before bouncing to 1997.00.
The noon hour dipped momentarily to 1988.50, but essentially ranged choppily sideways. A fresh high would target 2003.75, although that would be “no-bias trending” if not delayed.
A break lower has a little more room, to the 1986.50 bias-down signal, would avoid no-bias trending.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jun 28, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: While Tuesday’s GDP is high-profile, it has a poor track record for influencing price action. Many econ reports probably won’t be influential in this environment.
GDP
8:30 AM ET
Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2006.25 | 1996.50 |
| …would target | 2013.00 | 2003.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1995.50 | 1986.00 |
| …would target | 1989.75 | 1980.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Knife catch. Not quite blindfolded.
Straight down since the open, but targets met.
Coming within 1 point of Thursday night’s 1999.00 limit-down had bounced to greet the open at 2011.00. Price action trended almost straight down from there.
The requirement to retest 1999.00 was fulfilled. Its influence was modest, triggering a bounce that attacked 2004.00.
That didn’t last, and another downleg fell to 1991.25. Retesting 1999.00 down to 1993.50 was fulfilled. The question is whether that’s enough for another bounce.
Another bounce would be relatively substantial at this stage. The 1993.50 target was met just after violating a bounce limit. And before forming a new distribution pattern, let alone triggering it. This pessimism often proves optimistic — which can be bullish from a contrarian perspective.
Only 1-minute RSI is avoiding oversold territory, as the drop extends down to 1988.50. There is still room for noise down to 1980.00. But back above 1999.00 at this stage could trigger a much larger rally than most would have expected today.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Two overnight attacks on Thursday night’s 1999.00 limit-down continue to delay its inevitable retest. That is optimism, which is potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective.
Meanwhile, the overnight interim bounce formed downtrending pivotal resistance that intersects with the open around 2013.00. Holding its test — preferably, already reacting down by then — would target fresh lows. Recovering it through 9:45, and preferably also 2016.75, could avoid triggering the bias-down. For now.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.