S&P
The First Trade… There’s that bounce.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Sunday night had gapped down to 2014.00 and Monday’s open was even lower at 2011.00. Thursday night’s limit-down at 1999.00 was soon tested on the way down to 1981.50, taking RSIs oversold. A 15-point bounce was retraced to retest the low’s oversold RSIs, neutralizing the attraction below. Meanwhile, sellers didn’t gain traction for the effort.
Overnight action’s new info…
Bouncing at the Globex open extended back up to and through Monday afternoon’s 1996.50 high, and higher to 2006.00. It’s consolidation down to 2000.00 resolved up momentarily to 2008.75, still fluctuating choppily around 2006.00.
If, then…
Yesterday afternoon’s bias-up held instead of triggering, so potential up to 2003.50 was never tested. The retest of yesterday’s 2001.50 low has been more successful, probing the target overnight by up to 5 points. Regardless of its timing or overlap, that was always likely to be only a temporary corrective leg. Friday’s trend change signal was confirmed Monday, so a corrective bounce is not unusual before at least one more lower close fulfills the signal’s minimum requirement. Retesting yesterday’s low remains likely, whether to start forming a more durable bottom, or on the way toward oblivion. Gapping up will create a gap back down to yesterday’s close needing to be filled eventually. And trending up relentlessly overnight is vulnerable to being reversed at the open.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2006.75 would be likely also to exceed the 2003.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2001.50 would be likely to trigger the 1997.25 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2007.75 | 1997.25 |
| …would target | 2013.00 | 2003.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1994.25 | 1984.75 |
| …would target | 1986.00 | 1976.50 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday morning’s 1981.50 low was finally touched after the 3:10-3:20 window had lapsed. No fresh low during either the noon hour or afternoon, but the morning low’s obligatory support produced a reaction up to 1994.50.
Suspicious. That was still under the afternoon’s high, which had held the bias-up signal. In fact, a last-half hour 13-point surge up to 1994.50 was reversed 10 points down to 1983.50 through the futures close.
Sellers gained no traction for their efforts Monday. So, extending down without delay would require gapping down Tuesday.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Detour detoured.
Corrective bounce cut short.
The no-bias environment was not biased. The noon hour had touched this afternoon’s 1996.50 bias-up signal but didn’t trigger it at 1:20. The no-bias environment tested the 1986.00 bias-down signal but didn’t probe it.
But now the bias environment has lapsed. Exiting the bias environment above prior highs could at least have produced a corrective bounce. Instead, The bias-down signal is being probed.
The attraction to this morning’s oversold RSIs at 1981is in-play. Already neutralizing its attraction and recovering from fresh afternoon lows would have enabled an even bigger corrective bounce. But now it risks resuming the decline.
The lowest buy signal will be 1990.50. Nothing short of it today would be credible for reversing momentum up. Meanwhile, regardless of the path there, fresh lows remain likely.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Few currencies joined the Pound in probing under Thursday night’s lows, but the Euro’s behavior was typical among other currencies for probing under Friday’s intraday lows. Stopping optimistically short of probing fresh lows — while closing lower to confirm Friday’s breakout — keeps alive the downside momentum.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Monday to retest Friday’s 1336.00 post-open high reacted down to the 1322.40 pullback limit, which must hold as support to maintain near-term potential for retesting Thursday night’s 1362.60 high.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming Sunday night up to 17.94 didn’t prevent dipping to test the 17.75 pullback limit that keeps alive a retest of Friday’s 18.37 pre-open high up to 18.80.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up sharply Monday to 173-00 immediately recovered well above the rally’s original 171-24 target that had held its test Friday, and well on its way to retest Friday’s 173-25 pre-open high.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down Monday and closing under Friday’s breakout session confirmed that at least a third eventual lower close is required. The 48.75 sell signal already targets 45.00-45.40 which is now within 50 cents.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up slightly Monday didn’t extend much, the pattern still requiring an eventual third higher close above 2.78, but not precluding a detour down to 2.47-2.51 first..