S&P
Mid-day Update… Hung up.
Locked into a sideways range.
The overnight rally had extended through the open up to 2018.00. It was already dipping into the bias timing window at 10:15. The bias environment trended down to 2006.00.
That leg has since contained price action.
Bouncing through the noon hour touched the afternoon’s 2015.75 bias-up signal, stopping short of the high. Bias-up didn’t signal, and now a reaction down to 2009.00 is pausing short of the morning’s lows.
Exiting the bias environment at 2:30 above the noon hour’s 2016.00 high would be vulnerable to trending up through the close. Similarly, exiting the bias environment at 2:30 under this morning’s 2006.00 low could fill the gap back to yesterday’s 1991.00 close.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jun 29, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s calendar isn’t high-profile. Only EIA has a reliable track record for influencing price action. But the lack of other reports might give the housing sector more leverage in case it were to surprise.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
*Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
*EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2025.00 | 2015.75 |
| …would target | 2030.00 | 2020.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2015.00 | 2005.75 |
| …would target | 2008.50 | 1999.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Second wind.
Opening surge extends overnight rally.
Single-minded relentless overnight trending is always vulnerable to reversing at the open. Indeed, it often does. But rejection should be obvious before getting halfway through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. Still hanging on then, or already extending, makes another leg likely.
The pre-open dip greeted the cash session at 2010.00, fewer than 2 points under the high. Hovering there lasted almost half the opening 15 minutes before finally resolving. And having avoided rejection for that long, extending the prevailing trend became likely.
Fresh highs were likely to pierce 2018.00. It was tested and retested, but 2018.25 was touched only by an errant tick. Now a reaction down has is attacking the 2010.00 open.
Can the pullback extend to probe fresh post-open lows through the bias environment exit? That would undermine the post-open attempt to extend the overnight trending. Reversing the entire rally today would still be possible, but not required.
Otherwise, exiting the bias environment in rally mode could entrench the rally through tomorrow morning.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight rally extended to attack 2012.00, now dipping to its prior high testing 2008.00. That’s a lot of buying pressure since yesterday’s 1991.00 cash session close, and it’s still only testing yesterday morning’s opening highs. Meanwhile, single-minded relentless overnight trending is vulnerable to reversing at the open, so we should know shortly whether today is or isn’t one of those days.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.