S&P
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The 2087.50 overnight high has not extended, but neither has it been rejected. The open is being greeted by strong overnight buying pressures.
That could be a problem for the rally, since relentless, single-minded overnight trending often reverses post-open. A last-minute dip to 2083.00 might allow at least a snap back up to 2088.00. But that’s not required before a bearish WedEX influence emerges.
Not already reversing down through the opening 15 minutes of volatility often extends the overnight trending intraday. But ranging narrowly is not likely.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Correxit?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Gapping down a little Friday to 2068.00 extended down a lot to the morning’s 2053.25 low. The balance of the session “rallied” to 2065.25 in a series of higher highs and higher lows, albeit never leaving negative territory. The last hour dipped a little and then a lot to eventually touch 2057.75. That was still 2 points too high to consider WedEX.fulfilled its bearish signal.
Overnight action’s new info…
Poll results showed the Brexit “remain” support rising sharply. Sunday night’s open gapped up to 2071.00 and extended steadily overnight up to 2087.50. That’s back to last Friday’s close, which last Monday morning had probed only momentarily before extending the prior week’s decline.
If, then…
Has the rally’s corrective phase been exited, or is the overnight rally refueling sellers? The potential rally we discussed this weekend has been triggered by a favorable poll, and not by simply delaying the Brexit vote. Anti-Brexit forces had regained so much ground so quickly, that its sponsors would be foolish to delay the vote. So, the rally gets the best of both worlds. And knows it. Two questions now are whether the rally extends intraday, as the bearish WedEX influence arrives at the open. Trending down from the open should be obvious early, or it won’t be relevant.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] The bias-up parameters are far below current ranging. However, exiting the open at 9:45 above 2089.25 would be likely to extend higher this morning. Exiting the open under 2079.50 would be likelier to trend back down.
Globex chaRTroom link
The overnight Globex session has opened. Perhaps even better for anti-Brexit forces, polls now show Brexit’s brief single-digit lead has inverted to a substantial lead for remain.
This is not entirely identical to the bullish scenario described during yesterday’s Saturday Review. But it’s similar, and the open has gapped up and extended 9-13 points. A double-thrust remains possible, but not necessarily likely
Monitor overnight action in the chaRTroom, where I’ll be checking in later to add levels if indicated.
Oops – Sorry!
Somehow, transferring to the new site triggered the Email Alerts… 40 times. I apologize for the deluge, and any confusion it may have caused.
— Rod
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2074.50 | 2065.75 |
| …would target | 2080.00 | 2071.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2064.00 | 2055.25 |
| …would target | 2056.50 | 2047.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.