S&P
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Was the bearish WedEX influential Friday? The afternoon trended up 10 points in a series of higher highs and higher lows. Trending down 6 points through the final hour still held up above the prior low.
Other than ranging exclusively in negative territory, there was nothing overtly bearish. Not until AFTER the close, which relentlessly ticked down 5 points. I can’t say it’s not optimal confirmation since being post-close is purely a reflection of expiration. But it’s certainly not holistic since the afternoon trended up.
Being a Friday, let alone expiration, the inside day and buyers gaining traction are much less relevant than any other day, if at all. So, trending down sharply Monday (even if gapping up sharply) still remains a possibility.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
This weekend’s Saturday Review begins at 9:30am ET in the chaRTroom. Links will be emailed overnight.
Pre-close View… 50 shades of bearish.
Bounce meets target. Will it also meet a bearish WedEX?
The bearish WedEX signal applies no earlier than Friday afternoon. And then it applies. This afternoon has only trended up, so far.
A pullback down to 2056.00 recovered the 2060.25 bias-up signal to trigger a late bias-up. Its 2066.00 bias-up target was met at the high, as the bias environment was lapsing.
And no higher. Price action since then has fallen 5 points to 2061.25.
Ending the day under the afternoon’s 2056.00 low would help to confirm the bearish WedEX is influential. That will have a lot of relevance Monday morning. For the balance of today, the most relevant result will be trending down, or not.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s bounce extended overnight just enough to actually test Wednesday’s 1.1305 close, whose gap wasn’t quite filled. There not being an immediate reaction keeps the door open to a bigger bounce is underway, targeting the prior week’s high close at 1.1400
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s post-close drop had extended down overnight to test “lower prior highs” and 1281.00 pullback limit. The gap back up to Thursday’s 1308.50 open and the rally’s 1312.00 target should be retested.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down and sliding Friday post-open is nevertheless likely to retest Thursday’s 17.80 gap up before a durable top can form.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Extending the pullback Friday morning tested the pullback limit at 169-00. Back above 170-16 would target 171-22.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up and firming Friday was not surprising since Thursday had fulfilled the minimum pullback objective at 47.25. Bounces holding “higher prior lows” around 48.00 maintain the 45.00-45.40 lower objective.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still no trending attempts, breakouts or pullbacks that suggest the pattern would reverse down sharply if trying to rally beyond its 2.70-2.75 target.
Mid-day Update… Up the down staircase.
Late bias-up tries undermining bearish WedEX.
This morning’s dip to attack 2053.00 was retraced back up to 2062.50 through noon. Its reaction down to 2056.00 was recovered entirely. During that recovery, bias-up signaled.
Bias-up signaled late, so its 2066.00 bias-up target isn’t required to be met. The bearish WedEX influence can absorb the target’s test and reverse down before the close. The bias-up itself can be invalidated by exiting the bias environment under the afternoon’s 2056.00 low.
Fresh afternoon highs would make the bias-up target likely to be met, regardless of its resolution. But back under 2058.75 would start giving the bearish WedEx more credibility than the bullish bias-up.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jun 20, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s econ calendar is otherwise uneventful. But the usual noon hour illiquidity may be shaken by a Fed speaker.
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Neel Kashkari Speaks
12:15 PM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET