S&P
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2069.25 | 2060.25 |
| …would target | 2054.75 | 2066.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2061.75 | 2053.00 |
| …would target | 2056.25 | 2047.25 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESETED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Slip, slip, spike.
Delayed reaction to weak pre and post-open action.
The overnight range held tests of the 2065.00 and 2074.00 bias signals. Greeting the open between them at 2068.00 didn’t offer any compelling entry setups. Not long, or short.
Then the open spiked down, to a fresh low at 2061.50. That was aggressive, and also brief. The next hour ranged choppily back up to 2066.00. That’s not much more predictive than the overnight range.
Still overlapping the 2065.00 bias-down signal at 10:15 invoked the grace period. Sellers exploited it by eventually trending down sharply to 2056.50, whose oversold RSIs require its retest.
So, this is a bias-down environment. Its 2059.25 bias-down signal has been fulfilled. Breaking under 2056.00 would likely extend to 2053.00 — possibly this morning so long as 2062.50 holds as resistance.
This morning’s action has no bearing on the afternoon’s bearish WedEX. Trending down relentlessly isn’t required, but the possible paths should be identifiable by noon.
The First Trade… Relative calm.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s gap down and extension lower had tested the 2043.00 target down to 2040.75. A corrective bounce to 2049.00 was prepared to retest the lows and potentially form a durable bottom. Satisfied sellers and a little upward momentum were leveraged by tragic news that softened Brexit’s bearish influence. The balance of the session rallied relentlessly to 2071.50. No traction was gained.
Overnight action’s new info…
After initially firming up to 2074.75, price has dipped a little into negative territory at 2065.25. Each end of the overnight range is within 3 ticks of this morning’s bias-up and bias-down signals.
If, then…
Could a retest of 2043.00 today still form a bottom as would have been done by holding its retest yesterday? Probably not without probing even lower first, to compensate for the delay. That effort would meanwhile open the door to resuming the decline. Ending the week at fresh lows is rarely rejected immediately Monday. And this afternoon will be confronted by bearish WedEX influences. Probing fresh highs this morning is possible before reversing down later. The unlikely scenario would extend higher durably.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2070.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2074.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2063.00 would be likely to trigger the 2065.00 bias-down signal
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2083.00 | 2074.00 |
| …would target | 2089.25 | 2080.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2073.75 | 2065.00 |
| …would target | 2068.25 | 2059.25 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
The decline’s 2043.00 target had been met, and probed to its maximum room for noise down to 2040.75. It was retraced by 61.8% of the post-open slide back up to 2049.00. The balance of the session could have been spent retesting 2043.00 to form a durable bottom, or to extend down.
But simply retracing 61.8% of the opening slide had started tracking another template. Entering the afternoon’s bias environment above the open would open the door to extending well into positive territory.
The recovery extended to 2071.50, 29 points off the low. But it’s not bullish. Extending any higher wouldn’t have made it bullish. The low was not retested during another timing window, and the open’s gap down was not retested from above.
All of which can be done Friday, but not as reliably to hold and form a bottom. Meanwhile, extending higher Friday morning is possible, but not durably (and probably not by gapping up) due to a bearish WedEX.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.