S&P
Mid-day Update… Clawing at the walls.
Trying to escape the trend’s lower lows.
The noon hour’s bounce from 2055.00 to 2066.00 couldn’t maintain its probe above this afternoon’s 2062.00 bias-up signal. In the morning, this setup would have put into play an offsetting test of the 2056.50 bias-down signal.
The afternoon doesn’t require it. The no-bias environment still has room down to 2056.50. But price only continues hovering under 2062.00.
Back above 2063.75 would suggest another fresh session high underway, regardless of it originating during a no-bias environment. Meanwhile, fresh session lows remain likely.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jun 15, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s PPI is high-profile, and often influences price action. But the afternoon’s FOMC events are much more relevant, even without the ongoing struggle between either hiking rates, or just promising it. And volatility is very reliable during Fed Chair Yellen’s quarterly Q&A.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
*EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*FOMC Policy Statement
2:00 PM ET
FOMC Forecasts
2:00 PM ET
*Fed Chair Press Conference
2:30 PM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2071.25 | 2062.00 |
| …would target | 2076.75 | 2067.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2065.50 | 2056.50 |
| …would target | 2059.50 | 2050.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Early to rise gets worms.
Yet another post-open surge gets slammed.
Only one template at this stage of the pattern would have aligned with rallying through the morning. 
That required trending up without hesitation from the open.
Meanwhile, a bearish template also would have aligned with trending up at the open. It was simply a version of the path to lower lows being slower. Their difference would be in maintaining the early gain, or not.
Not.
The 2065.25 opening print spent the entire first 15 minutes of volatility trending up relentlessly to 2072.75. That retested overnight highs. Price action since then has trended back down.
The 2068.25 bias-down signal triggered, and its 2062.50 bias-down target has been met already, on the way down to 2058.75.
Another bullish template would have isolated the probe of negative territory to the overnight window by opening in positive territory before surging. That template is reset now that overnight lows have been retested intraday, and exiting the bias environment above the open’s 2072.75 high would be bullish. Otherwise, the trend remains down.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Bouncing to 2067.25 has reacted back down, testing the 2062.50 bias-down target ahead of the open. Retesting the 2068.25 overnight low isn’t required intraday, but it would be likely if the open isn’t quickly isolating the overnight probe into negative territory.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.