S&P
The First Trade… Probing lower.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
You don’t see that everyday. I’m not referring to Monday’s gap down, or to holding two tests of Friday’s 2079.50 low, which avoided triggering bias-down. But higher targets were invalidated upon exiting the bias environment under the open’s lows. And that was despite fresh post-10:15 highs confirming the higher targets, piercing positive territory up to 2089.25. The balance of the session trended down to 2068.75.
Overnight action’s new info…
Monday’s slide kept its pace and slid to 2064.00. 
Bouncing back to 2071.75 was already giving way ahead of Europe’s opens. Fresh lows down to 2060.25 are being retraced now up to 2067.25.
If, then…
The decline’s next lower target at 2063.50 was put into play. It has been influential overnight, initially attacking it to within 3 ticks, and then probing it temporarily by 3 points. This action can form an isolation setup if post-open action avoids probing negative territory. No influential econ reports are scheduled, and FOMC’s policy statement isn’t until tomorrow — neither of which is necessarily bullish or bearish, but they could otherwise be catalysts for sparking counter-trend action. Without already reversing up this morning, the decline could extend toward or to 2043.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2070.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2068.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2064.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 2060.50 would be unlikely to recover the 2062.50 bias-down target at 10:15, which would renew the bias-down signal next targeting 2057.50 and 2053.00.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2085.00 | 2075.75 |
| …would target | 2090.25 | 2081.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2077.50 | 2068.25 |
| …would target | 2071.75 | 2062.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Bouncing throughout Monday’s noon hour and bias environment repeatedly resolved in fresh lows. The position-squaring window trended down to close around 2069.00-2070.00.
Pretty good word for the decline, after invalidating higher objectives put into play by the morning’s no-bias signal. Having confirmed with a fresh high opst-10:15, a lot of serious selling pressure was required to exit the bias environment at fresh session lows.
Strong-handed buyers overcome by stronger-handed sellers. Are even stronger-handed buyers next?
A “session-long rally” setup would form by gapping up Tuesday above Monday afternoon’s 2080.25 / 2081.50 bias environment’s highs, having trended down into Monday’s close. Otherwise, extending down would next target 2063.50 and potentially also 2043.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Getting late for a bottom.
Chipping away at the afternoon bias environment’s support.
The noon hour touched this afternoon’s 2076.25 bias-down signal but held it easily through 1:20 to trigger no-bias. Bouncing to attack 2083.00 resolved down to fresh lows at 2075.00. Ranging back up to 2080.00 has resolved down to 2073.00.
And now the final hour is being entered. Fresh lows are printing. There’s one more opportunity to trap shorts by isolating the afternoon’s chipping away at support.
Entering the position-squaring window around 3:37pm above 2077.50 or 2078.50 would be vulnerable to a squeeze. Otherwise, the decline from last week’s highs can carry through tomorrow morning.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Monday and extending higher intraday helps to confirm that Friday’s break lower was false. A second consecutive higher close Tuesday would confirm last week’s 1.1400 high close is being targeted, and potentially also 1.1550.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up sharply Monday to test 1290.00 found resistance, but did not reject the second consecutive gap’s recovery. Fresh relative highs targeting 13112.00 are likely so long as pullbacks now hold 1280.00.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming into the new week keeps alive potential for this leg to reach 17.60 which would be vulnerable to reversing down if Gold were simultaneously fulfilling its objective.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s fresh highs were maintained but not extended while stocks tested and retested Friday’s lows. Not immediately rejecting Friday’s fresh highs doesn’t prevent dipping anyway, but it makes a dip likely to recover and to resume the rally.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s break under the 50.15 sell signal gapped down deeper Monday. Bouncing intraday held 49.00 resistance before reversing back down in the afternoon, as the capitulation pattern presumably develops.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Not yet dipping to a more constructive pullback test like 2.51 or 2.47 probably inhibited Monday’s gap up from being more productive than momentarily piercing Friday’s high. Spending the entire session in positive territory formed “ineffectual optimism,” which can’t afford to hesitate extending higher Tuesday to avoid even deeper pullback potential.