S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jun 14, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Retail Sales is a high-profile econ report, but it has no reliable track record for influencing price action. Neither do any of Tuesday’s other reports.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Mid-day Update… Slow-playing the upside.
No-bias signal’s reward rescinded.
Holding a test of the 2082.00 bias-down signal through 10:!5 had put into play an offsetting test of the 2093.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the bias environment back under 2082.00 would have invalidated the reward for originally having held it. Otherwise, 2093.00 would become “unfinished business above.”
But fresh highs were probed after 10:15. Now sponsorship was attracted. Invalidating the reward would now require not only waning sponsorship, but also greater counter-trend sponsorship. And that would be signaled by exiting the bias environment under the open’s 2078.50 low.
The bias environment started lapsing at 11:30 from above 2082.00. But the noon hour was entered at fresh session lows testing 2076.00. The 2093.00 objective is NOT “unfinished business above.”
That’s not bullish, but neither is it necessarily bearish. The likelier bearish templates would have retaken control this morning. This probe can still be absorbed. If it’s not, then the decline unfolding from last week’s highs remains intact, and pointed sharply lower.
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2094.25 | 2085.00 |
| …would target | 2100.00 | 2090.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2085.50 | 2076.25 |
| …would target | 2079.50 | 2070.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… On the other foot.
Friday’s impatient sellers had it coming.
The bullish scenario didn’t just require probing under Friday’s low. That was done overnight, touching this morning’s 2077.00 bias-down target. It still needed to be experienced intraday.
Even then, the open’s blip-down had reacted up so quickly that a re-retest was needed. And quickly, since it needed to be isolated to the opening 15 minutes of volatility.
It was.
Soon the 2082.00 bias-down signal was being probed on the way to filling the gap(s) back to Friday’s close at 2086.00-2087.25. Reacting down held above the 2082.00 bias-down signal long enough to avoid triggering it.
And that has since extended higher.
An offsetting test of the 2093.00 bias-up signal is in-play. Fresh post-open highs and positive territory are being probed to 2089.25 — after 10:15, which makes 2093.00 likely to become “unfinished business above” if not met this morning.
Having tested the 2077.00 bias-down target so near the open, an offsetting test of the 2098.75 bias-up target wouldn’t be surprising. It wouldn’t be in-play officially. Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 under 2082.00 would delay any unfinished business above for a new session low.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Overnight ranging in negative territory is persisting into the open. The 2082.00 bias-down signal’s resistance is still holding tests, so at least a brief fresh low remains likely, regardless of its resolution.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.