S&P
The First Trade… Try, try again.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s pre-open Employment Situation report was greeted at the 2039.00 lows of 2-1/2 week old decline from 2105.00. The next lower objectives at 2030.00 and 2035.00 were fulfilled before the cash session open, which surged immediately to attack 2047.00. Retesting 2035.00 launched another rally, lasting through the close and extending to 2052.00-2054.00. The pre-open low was a “new Globex trend extreme” that will require eventual retest intraday.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s 2053.00 open quickly surged to attack 2058.00. Ranging back down to 2053.50 broke lower into Europe’s opens, probing negative territory down to 2049.00. Consolidating the dip for an hour then resolved up to probe fresh highs at 2059.50.
If, then…
Stopping short of 2056.00 Friday afternoon kept the session’s rally from reversing the trend up. If testing 2030.00 and 2035.00 ended the ongoing decline, then gapping up through 2059.50 is the next opportunity to try signaling it. Already testing 2059.50 overnight doesn’t make its recovery likelier, other than the nearer proximity. It’s still resistance, and holding its test still has a big consequence — like Wednesday night’s failed rally.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2057.00 would be likely to trigger the 2055.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2052.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
chaRTroom link to monitor the Globex session
Markets had closed before being able to react to Friday’s news that the Saudi oil minister was replaced. It’s being viewed as bearish for oil prices, but we’ll soon see how much the market cares.
Possibly more influential to the markets — at least, in astro- finance circles — is the new moon cycle that began Friday. This is called a super-moon, being at its closest point to earth. Giving it even greater significance is the coincidental timing of a rare passing by Mars between earth and the sun.
Apparently, the alignment is a sign of the end times. So, be sure your positions are hedged accordingly, in case the markets have not already discounted it. Monitor that in the chaRTroom when Globex opens at 6pm ET.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2060.75 | 2055.00 |
| …would target | 2066.50 | 2061.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2046.50 | 2041.00 |
| …would target | 2039.75 | 2034.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP INVALIDATED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
This is interesting, for how uninteresting it is.
It’s difficult to reverse intraday trending that exits a Friday’s bias environment beyond the session’s other timing window extremes. That doesn’t require extending the trend, although that’s often the result. And it doesn’t prohibit reversing anyway, although that’s rare — and short-lived when it happens.
Friday’s bias environment began lapsing at its 2050.50 bias-up target. It had been probed already up to 2052.25 a couple of times. Narrow ranging around it up to 2052.25 persisted for another hour.
Doesn’t seem interesting, I know. But considering the session had recovered from probing negative territory, maintaining the recover is actually pretty interesting. More so, the recovery came from pinting new lows for the ongoing decline, new lows that had satisfied the decline’s 2030.00 and 2035.00 objectives
Closing above at least 2056.00 would have been more interesting, confirming the decline has ended. Gapping up sufficiently Monday would serve by proxy, and be more capable of launching a recovery. Otherwise, resuming the decline could still hold a retest of Friday’s pre-open lows down to 2027.00 before suggesting the decline is extending.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
The link to this weekend’s Saturday Review will be sent overnight, well ahead of the 9;30am ET start.
Mid-day Update… That might be that.
Post-open dip recovers to launch afternoon rally.
This morning could have staged a tremendous rally. Has it only been delayed to the afternoon?
Recovering the open’s tests of both bias-down parameters would have put into play offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters, essentially 2051.00 and 2056.00. But the open’s surge was retraced back down to the morning’s 2034.75 bias-down target. The bias environment exit had recovered back up to the morning’s 2041.00 bias-down signal as resistance.
The noon hour’s dip to 2037.25 was recovered to test the afternoon’s 2044.25 bias-up signal. It wasn’t triggered, but the afternoon’s 2050.50 bias-up target is being tested, anyway.
I had described during this pre-market Tour one bullish scenario that could avoid thoroughly testing the lower-end of early-April’s consolidation. Closing above 2056.00 or even above 2059.50 is basically the parameter, which is another 4-7 points higher.
The extra post-open dip did help to refuel buyers, and RSIs are overbought at the 2052.25 high, so a reaction down would likely recover — albeit from 2045.00 or 2042.50, and not necessarily today.