S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Spiking up Friday in reaction the morning’s payrolls number held a test of the 1.1485 sell signal that had triggered Thursday. A second consecutive lower close would be that much more bearish, than just to confirm Thursday’s breakout.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Second time was a charm for triggering the 1282.70 buy signal that was reinstated since fresh lows were probed after Wednesday’s gap up had failed. Fresh highs targeting 1313.50 remain in-play.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s reaction to the morning’s payrolls report was a test of 17.50 resistance, whose recovery through the close would suggest the pullback had ended — although closing above 17.60 would be optimal for reinstating the 18.80 target.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The knee-jerk reaction to Friday’s payrolls report spiked up to 166-16 before reacting back down to 165-00 support. Holding it would maintain this leg’s potential for filling the gap back up to 166-30 and extending to 167-26.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Early weakness reacted up temporarily through the 44.75 buy signal to 44.35, before dipping back under the signal. At least a deeper pullback was avoided. But triggering the buy signal would help to maintain the near-term potential for producing the required new high close.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s negative reaction to the morning’s EIA report did fill one outstanding gap below at 2.07, and Friday’s early follow-through attacked the 2.03 gap’s bar down to within 1 penny. Back above 2.14 would now signal momentum reversing up.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon May 9, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s Fed speaker is too early to have a reliable influence on post-open price action. The post-open econ report has no track record for influencing price action. Monday’s calendar just isn’t influential.
Charles Evans Speaks
5:10 AM ET
Labor Market Conditions Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
Neel Kashkari Speaks
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2050.00 | 2044.25 |
| …would target | 2056.00 | 2050.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2039.50 | 2034.00 |
| …would target | 2033.00 | 2027.25 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Couldn’t change its spots.
Open’s surge maintains the week’s pattern of failed bounces.
The 2030.50 low had recovered to greet the open at essentially the 2034.75 bias-down target. Post-open action surged to 2046.75. And never extended higher.
Instead, two dips tested the 2041.00 bias-down signal as support. The second test did poorly. Eventually.
Initially, the 2041.00 bias-down signal had held through 10:15 to trigger no-bias. But eventually, the 2041.00 bias-down signal gave way through 10:30. It was too late to trigger, and too late to invoke a grace period. The no-bias was simply invalidated.
Tuesday afternoon’s corrective bounce was retraced entirely Wednesday night’s rally into Thursday’s gap up also fell back to its interim lows. That pattern didn’t require repeating this morning, but it did require issuing a warning in the chaRTroom. And a sell signal triggered on its second attempt.
Now the open and bias-down target are being retested. They are natural support that might produce a bounce. Extending down to the 2030.00 objective has room for noise down to 2027.25.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
This morning’s Employment Situation report was greeted from the decline’s 2039.00-2039.50 lows. Its knee-jerk reaction spiked down to 2033.00, a preliminary level for the open. A bounce to 2037.50 resolved down to within 2 ticks of the decline’s 2030.00 objective.
Now another bounce is attacking 2033.00 as support again. This morning can still trend in either direction. But post-open action should try replicating the pre-open selling to some degree.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.