S&P
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2097.00 | 2091.00 |
| …would target | 2102.25 | 2096.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2087.75 | 2081.75 |
| …would target | 2081.50 | 2075.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-close View… War of a traction.
Sellers could still gain traction.
The bias environment’s low fulfilled this afternoon’s 2082.75 bias-down target, which was pierced by 2 ticks. Its reaction up probed back above the bias environment’s 2085.25 low by 2 points, which prevented sellers from gaining traction.
So far. The door is open to a short-squeeze. Signaling a squeeze required entering the final hour above a prior high, not just probing above a higher prior low.
Back under 2084.00 quickly could trend down to fresh session lows through the 3:10-3:20 timing window. And that would do by proxy what the final hour entry avoided. Sellers would gain traction, and tomorrow morning would likely trend down further.
There is no unfinished business below, so the only reason not to rally is because a deeper downleg is underway.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Thursday peaked upon filling the gap back to the high’s last close at 1.1415. This was above Wednesday’s high that had held a test of “higher prior lows,” and closing any higher would have put into play new highs. But Mario Draghi had the mic. And without much further delay, the gap up was retraced into negative territory under 1.1310. No buy signal would be credible before probing fresh lows.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up sharply to fresh highs was soon reversed even more sharply to probe back under Wednesday’s lows. Closing under 1248.00 would trigger a downleg targeting 1222.00 that could launch the pattern’s most substantial rally, yet.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s gap up to much higher fresh highs was nevertheless reversed back down sharply into negative territory. This doesn’t affect the confirmed breakout that still requires at least one eventual higher close.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Failing to hold the 164-12 pullback limit’s retest Wednesday broke sharply lower, and extended even deeper Thursday morning. The second consecutive lower close now requires an eventual third lower close. Bounces should meanwhile hold 163-12 if tested.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Closing Wednesday above last week’s highs could be confirmed by Thursday closing higher, but trending back down under prior highs misses that opportunity. Almost any initial weakness Friday would be credible for extending down intraday.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was greeted from a position of strength, being a pullback in an uptrend of higher highs and higher lows. But that didn’t ensure any meaningful reaction, as the session ranged only narrowly.
Mid-day Update… Drift.
Probing lower and lower lows.
This morning’s 2093.00 bias-down signal officially triggered late. Recovering it at 10:30 would have invalidated it, but that was missed by 1 tick. And by 1 minute. A bounce tested 2097.50.
But the decline resumed, and this afternoon’s 2089.75 bias-down signal triggered late. Unlike this morning, fresh lows were confirming it at 10:30.
Yesterday’s “unfinished business below” at 2088.25 has been met. This morning’s 2087.50 bias-down target has been met. And now this afternoon’s 2082.75 bias-down target is in-play.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Apr 22, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Being Friday morning’s only econ report, the PMI Flash might influence price action despite having a limited track record for that. The afternoon’s Rig Count tends to influence Crude Oil. Passover begins at sundown, so participation may thin out earlier than usual, even for a Friday.
PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
9:45 AM ET
*Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET