S&P
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2092.00 | 2086.00 |
| …would target | 2098.00 | 2092.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2080.75 | 2074.75 |
| …would target | 2073.00 | 2067.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Going once, going twice, gone?
One test held didn’t prevent later breaking the bias-down signal.
The open blipped down to test the 2081.75 bias-down signal by 1 point. Its reaction up recovered to and through yesterday’s late 2087.50 highs, up to the 2089.00 overnight high.
But no higher. And that has all been reversed. The 2081.75 bias-down signal has been probed down to its 2075.50 bias-down TARGET.
This came after signaling no-bias at 10:15. And it came after holding the bias-down signal’s retest at 10:30. So, this is “no-bias trending” that requires being retraced back to the 2081.75 bias-down signal. Even higher, to fulfill the offsetting test of the 2092.00 bias-up signal.
All of that can be rendered moot. Since the 10:15 high was never bettered, exiting the bias environment under the 2075.50 bias-down would not leave any “unfinished business above.”And room to 2067.00 below.
Currently, oversold RSIs at the low are impeding a recovery, while a continuation pattern (Flag) has formed. Currently, there’s still time to neutralize the downside by 11:30 to reinstate the upside. But currently there’s no upside momentum.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The recovery back up to 2087.50 was reversed again. Probing under yesterday afternoon’s lows found support at this morning’s 2081.75 bias-down signal — twice. The interim bounce peaked at 2085.00, so its post-open recovery could begin a bigger recovery. Otherwise, triggering bias-down has only obligatory support from overnight lows to try slowing a deeper drop.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Hang in there, it’s Friday!
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday night’s recovery attempt up to 2104.00 had been retraced to greet Thursday’s open unchanged around 2096.00. The reversal extended through the open and through the afternoon to attack 2082.00. The last 60-90 minutes ranged choppily sideways ahead of post-close earnings from GOOG and MSFT. Sellers gained no traction for their efforts.
Overnight action’s new info…
Plunging in reaction to earnings extended down to test 2078.00. Its reaction up extended higher relentlessly, probing the late-afternoon 2087.50 resistance up to 2089.00. Europe’s opens began a reversal that extended to 2079.00, which — like the post-close plunge — has been retraced back up to 2087.50.
If, then…
The chart reminds me of the iconic cat poster “Hang in there, weekend’s coming!” The drop from Wednesday afternoon’s doomed high is dangling at support — and there’s a bit of a drop below. There’s also a way up. Having trended down into Thursday’s close, gapping up Friday above the afternoon’s 2090.25 high could form a “session-long rally” setup. And a retest of last year’s last relative highs at 2110.00 would not be difficult to reach. Testing 2090.25 at or just before the open would require either forming the setup, or else duplicating yesterday’s decline. And that would target 2076.00 if not also 2067.00.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 Exiting the open under 2079.00 would be likely to trigger the 2081.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2083.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2093.75 would be likely to trigger the 2091.00 bias-up signal.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
The 3:10-3:20 window certainly didn’t trend down to fresh lows. The 2082.25 low was attacked, but not probed. The session’s last 60-90 minutes only ranged choppily sideways ahead of post-close earnings from GOOG and MSFT.
The cash session’s last minute spiked up to 2088.75 and then back down to the afternoon’s 2082.25 low. Breaking lower after the futures close plunged to 2078.75.
Regardless of the post-close plunge, sellers gained no traction Thursday, and no unfinished business below as left outstanding. Unlike the prior two sessions, Friday’s open need not gap up to launch a rally. So, gapping down anyway would be doubly-bearish.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.