S&P
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
This morning’s plunge was recovered throughout the afternoon. But it stopped short of touching Thursday afternoon’s highs. Pessimistically short. And that’s potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Unfinished business above left outstanding at 2092.00 can attract Monday’s open and extend it into a probe of fresh highs that tests 2110.00. Meanwhile, delaying an upleg would be attracted down to Friday’s oversold RSIs at 2075.00, and potentially lower to 2067.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
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Pre-close View… Mmmm, pudding!
Growing proof that the drop was weak-handed.
Only 2 errant ticks pierced this morning’s 2075.50 bias-down target. That’s less relevant than the fact that it held through 11:30. Having originated during a no-bias environment, its 2081.75 bias-down signal required retracement. This “no-bias trending” would have been invalidated if 2075.50 had not held.
2081.75 was retested, along with the 2092.00 10:15 print that is also often retested after no-bias trending. Which leaves one more objective outstanding, this morning’s offsetting test of its 2092.00 bias-up signal.
There’s still risk of reversing down. Oversold RSIs at the 2075.00 low require its eventual retest, but with any particular timing. And this afternoon’s rally leg was launched from a Symmetrical Triangle, a pattern that often breaks falsely in one direction before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction.
But momentum is currently pointed up. The afternoon’s rally has been consolidating just under yesterday’s late afternoon highs, pessimism that is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Especially if the 3:10-3:20 timing window were to trend higher, the balance of the session should extend higher, too.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s slide finally produced a fresh low close that fulfills the unfinished business of the recent confirmed breakout. Monday mornings tend to duplicate Fridays in currencies, so lower lows are likely. Closing under 1.1170 would signal a much deeper decline underway.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sliding through the 1248.00 sell signal Friday morning probed under 1230.00, presumably on the way to fulfilling the 1222.00 objective below. It remains in-play so long as 1234.50 is not recovered.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Choppy ranging Friday consolidated Thursday’s steep intraday reversal back to Tuesday’s 16.88 lows, while ignoring Gold’s plunge, presumably preparing to resume its rally targeting 18.80.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat narrow ranging Friday avoided producing the eventual third lower close that has become required by Wednesday’s confirmed breakout. Bounces should meanwhile hold any test of 163-12.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s high had probed recent highs, and closed slightly higher. Probing Wednesday’s high Friday without closing above it suggests that topping has begun — but not yet sealed. Waning upside momentum was indicated separately by Friday’s session “ineffectual optimism” that gapped up and spent the entire session in positive territory without maintaining the probe above Wednesday’s prior high. Closing above 43.55 keeps alive potential for resolving up, and under 43.10 would start to siganla break lower is underway.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s relatively muted reaction to the day’s EIA report was resolved up to fresh highs Friday, targeting 2.20-2.25.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Apr 25, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The prior week’s housing sector reports had no track record of influencing price action. Monday’s Home Sales probably won’t, either. And the subsequent Dallas Fed survey is high-profile, but also isn’t reliable for influencing price action.
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Mid-day Update… That which doesn’t kill it?
Bias-down target held as support.
We can’t control the timing of headlines. Or of rumors. Or of whatever it was that triggered this morning’s late break under the 2081.75 bias-down signal — let alone the opening rally’s rejection from 2089.00.
The 2081.75 bias-down signal had held already through 10:15 to put into play an offsetting test of this morning’s 2092.00 bias-up signal. The 2081.75 bias-down signal had held already through 10:30 to avoid invalidating what was signaled at 10:15.
That didn’t prevent its break soon after. But if that break were sponsored by strong hands, then it should have been underway already. Alternatively, strong hands would extend that break through the 2075.50 bias-down target through 11:30.
2075.50 was tested, and the test held. So, that wasn’t strong hands sponsoring the morning’s drop to it. The 2092.00 objective now becomes “unfinished business above.” We still can’t control the path there, since oversold RSIs at the low require its retest. But extending down to 2067.00 won’t be done by strong hands, requiring its eventual recovery.