S&P
Post-open Review… For old time’s sake.
Last week’s reversal bleeding into this week’s open.
Without yet trending back up above a prior high before the weekend, last week’s rally had potential for bleeding into the new week. After making its imprint, a recovery remains possible. Potential for a recovery remains alive thanks to Sunday night’s opening surge.
Sunday night’s opening surge wasn’t outright bullish. Neutralizing the 2091.00 objective above has been the recovery’s worst development. Its reversal down to 2074.00 was recovered to attack 2086.00, which has also proved unwise.
All of that overnight optimism hasn’t just failed to gain traction intraday — it hasn’t been repeated intraday. Post-open action has only trended down, in a series of lower lows and lower highs.
Fresh lows are being probed down to 2072.50. The 2071.50 target would fulfill the 2080.25 bias-down signal’s selling pressure. Resolving any bounce lower would next target 2067.00-2069.00. Rallying from either target could recover all of the overnight drop from 2091.00.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The recovery back up to 2086.00 had formed a Symmetrical Triangle. The pattern often breaks falsely in one direction before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction. But its initial breakout has only extended. And its initial breakout was down.
Now 2077.50 is being tested, whose break through 9:45 would suggest the 2080.25 bias-down signal will trigger at 10:15. Retesting Friday’s 2075.00 low could easily lead to 2067.00-2069.00.
Exiting the open back above 2081.75 could at least marginalize sellers, even if its upside this morning were limited to only a test of 2086.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Containing their optimism.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s open blipped-down to touch the 2081.75 bias-down signal. Without triggering it, an offsetting test of the 2091.00 bias-up signal was put into play. That didn’t prevent a mid-morning drop to the 2075.50 bias-down target. But holding its test only cemented the 2091.00 objective into becoming “unfinished business above.” Friday afternoon rallied to fulfill two interim objectives, first retracing the morning’s bias-down signal, and then extending to the 10:15 2086.00 print. No traction was gained, but oversold RSIs were left outstanding at the low.
Overnight action’s new info…
Don’t blink, you’ll miss it… Sunday night’s open gapped up to 2091.50, immediately fulfilling Friday’s unfinished business above. That bit of optimism was reversed abruptly by a reversal that eventually tested 2081.75. A bounce attacked 2086.00 into Europe’s opens. Its optimism was also reversed abruptly, too, by steep slide that tested Friday’s 2075.00 low down to 2074.00. Optimism is poking its head out again, retracing all of the last drop to attack 2086.00 again.
If, then…
Unfinished business below and above at 2075.00 and 2091.00 did not require intraday retest. Their attractions are now neutralized. And the open is indicated essentially unchanged around 2086.00. Opening flat with no outstanding attraction would make for a very lifeless morning. Resuming the rally is still likelier, more so after three overnight instances of quashing optimism. The latest instance — recovering the steep slide from 2086.00 — has formed a Symmetrical Triangle whose break lower may be resolving up now. Gapping up would be helpful confirmation, while a flat open would suggest another attack on the lows.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2086.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2089.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2091.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.
Sunday night’s Globex link
A relatively dull weekend on the geopolitical and macroeconomic fronts. Does that mean nothing will interfere with extending Friday afternoon’s recovery and fulfilling its “unfinished business above”?
CLICK HERE to monitor overnight action in the chaRTroom.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2095.25 | 2089.25 |
| …would target | 2102.25 | 2096.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2086.25 | 2080.25 |
| …would target | 2077.50 | 2071.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.