S&P
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Reacting down from the 2105.25 high fell back to and through 2101.00 and 2099.75 to test the open’s 2096.25 highs by 3 ticks. It was a singular downleg, originating from the high print, so it’s probably just a warning shot. Reacting down from the high’s retest would be more capable of extending down deeply.
Unfinished business below was left outstanding at 2088.25. Testing it first, before retesting the high, would not prevent retesting the high later. And it would be easier to extend higher. So the more bullish scenario is probably down, first.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… No-bias trending.
Spoiler alert: I’ve buried the lede.
This afternoon’s 2101.00 bias-up signal didn’t trigger. And it wasn’t exceeded through 1:30 to invalidate the no-bias environment. But it was broken anyway, and price has extended up to 2104.50. This is “no-bias trending,” and it requires being retraced to at least the 2101.00 bias-up signal.
There’s no timing requirement to the retracement, which can happen at any time. But the ongoing series of higher highs and higher lows is trending, so we know that the first reaction down won’t be THE reaction down, but a warning shot. And even that warning shot could be absorbed for higher highs.
Meanwhile, consider the main implication of probing higher highs, which is the long-awaited retest of last year’s last relative high is now being fulfilled. Now consider the context of neutralizing the upside objective, which is being done by a leg that is doomed to failure.
That attraction above is neutralized at 2110.00, another 5 points higher. Not yet neutralizing the attraction below at 2101.00 would be very vulnerable to reversing down sharply. So, even the most bullish scenario should test 2101.00 today or overnight.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Only attacking the gap back to 1.1415 before resuming the decline isn’t necessarily premature. But Wednesday’s drop must still be confirmed before relying it to extend. And resuming the corrective bounce first would more likely probe prior highs to compensate for the delay.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday night’s high filled the gap back to 1259.00 before Wednesday’s open dipped back into Tuesday’s intraday range. The decline didn’t yet resume, but it may have been supported only by Silver’s simultaneous strength.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Extending higher overnight produced a gap up Wednesday that was maintained to confirm Tuesday’s breakout above 16.85. Pullbacks have room down to 16.70 while maintaining the next higher target at 18.80.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Initially rallying Wednesday was blind-sided by a broader market recovery. The 164-12/164-20 pullback limit that could barely be tested last week, has now been probed twice this week, this time targeting 164-06. But a close above 165-06 is still needed to signal the pullback has ended and the trend has reversed up.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down Wednesday had reacted up to fill the gap back to Tuesday’s close, when OPEC rumors triggered a surge that extended through the afternoon, and through prior highs. None of which changes Friday’s confirmed breakout that requires at least one more lower close.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s probe of Tuesday’s 2.10 high by 3 cents was reversed back under Tuesday’s high. Closing under 2.05 would signal a deeper corrective dip underway. Otherwise, the rally’s momentum remains intact and targeting 2.20-2.25 .
Mid-day Update… Rumor milled.
No-bias objective is cut short by OPEC rumors.
Repeatedly testing this morning’s 2096.25 bias-up signal prevented it from triggering. That put into play an offsetting test of the 2088.25 bias-down signal. It was attacked down to 2089.50.
The objective was attacked, and it likely would have been probed back down to and through yesterday’s lows. But then the OPEC rumor hit, taking Crude higher and ES to fresh session highs at 2100.50.
Unfortunately, I had no buy signal working, and other than violating the drop’s bounce limit above 2091.25, I didn’t participate in the surge.
Testing 2100.00-2101.00 at the open would have been bullish. Yesterday’s buyers gained no traction, so resuming the rally before late-afternoon had to begin abruptly and aggressively. Delaying the test of 2100.00-2101.00 is not bullish. Its test just reacted down to 2097.00, and any deeper would reinstate the morning’s decline.
Otherwise, back above 2099.75 and 2101.00 could trigger bias-up, but fresh highs would still be much more vulnerable to reversing back down before the final hour.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Apr 21, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s calendar is busy, but there are only two reliably influential reports. The pre-open Philly Fed is the only relevant Fed survey. And the post-open LEI usually influences price action. Keep in mind that reaction to the pre-open reports tends to be repeated by the post-open reports. Also look for late-afternoon action to become inhibited ahead of the post-close earnings from GOOG.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
5-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET