S&P
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2107.00 | 2101.00 |
| …would target | 2113.25 | 2107.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2100.25 | 2094.25 |
| …would target | 2094.25 | 2088.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Good effort, but no.
Overnight recovery attracts no new sponsorship.
Last night’s dip from 2095.50 down to 2085.75 had been recovered pre-open up to 2098.00. Its reaction down greeted the open at this morning’s 2096.25 bias-up signal, and extended down to 2092.50. Two more bounces held 2096.25.
Meanwhile, the bullish scenario’s 2093.75 pullback limit held two tests, too. It’s now being tested for a third time. It will probably break lower, since the bias-up signal is failing to trigger, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2088.25 bias-down signal.
That may be the bullish scenario. Having failed to gap up and extend higher in this no-traction setup, probing fresh highs this morning would have been doomed to failure. Delaying fresh highs until late-afternoon would escape that restraint. By the same token, probing fresh highs anyway could form a more durable top here.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
A lot of energy was expended in recovering the overnight dip high enough to indicate gapping up at the open. Yesterday morning’s high was only pierced, which exhibits a little pessimism, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Stopping pessimistically short of touching the outstanding “new Globex trend extreme” helps to preserve buying pressure, too. But now it is incumbent upon post-open sponsorship to resume the rally and extend it to fresh highs. Otherwise, this being the upper-end of the range and upside momentum failing, the morning would be vulnerable to trending back down.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… CORRECTED CHARTROOM LINK
Sorry for the confusion — here’s the correct chaRTroom link:
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
The First Trade… Testing the highs.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Monday night’s “new Globex trend extreme” at 2098.50 had reacted down into Tuesday’s open, and then attacked to within 3 ticks at the morning’s high. Its intraday retest remains outstanding. The noon hour’s dip to 2085.00 in the same pattern we saw at Friday afternoon’s low, giving us very early anticipation for a reaction target of 2095.50 that was met at the close. The rally failed to gain traction for its efforts.
Overnight action’s new info…
With near-term buying pressure satisfied, the Globex open immediately began trending down. The reversal extended relentlessly into Europe’s opens before bottoming at 2086.00. A recovery eventually began, and it is now probing yesterday’s highs up to 2098.00.
If, then…
Having failed to gain traction for yesterday afternoon’s efforts, the rally can extend higher this morning only by gapping up. Retracing all of the overnight drop is encouraging, and opening above the “new Globex trend extreme” at 2098.50 would be more promising. But in either case, the opening 15 minutes must still extend to higher maintain momentum. Otherwise, probing under yesterday’s lows would not be surprising.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2098.50 would be likely to trigger the 2096.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2093.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.