S&P
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2102.50 | 2096.25 |
| …would target | 2108.50 | 2102.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2094.50 | 2088.25 |
| …would target | 2089.00 | 2082.75 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Ranging sideways through Tuesday afternoon was biased-upward, probing higher gradually higher and not reacting down from relevant resistance. The minimum objective at 2085.25 was touched, and responded to, but not actually rejected.
It’s not upside traction — regardless of exiting the bias environment above the noon hour high. But nothing about it was distributive, so gapping up Wednesday morning to extend higher is possible. Recovering a pullback would be possible, too.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Waiting for intel on INTC.
Post-close earnings inhibiting trending.
The open’s gap up did extend higher, essentially immunizing the morning from reversing down. The extension peaked at 2097.75, which is 3 ticks below the overnight high’s “new Globex trend extreme” that requires eventual retest intraday.
Probing negative territory during the open would have trended down sharply for the day. But probing negative territory during the noon hour was easily absorbed, and recovered.
At least, the dip to 2085.00 has been retraced up to 2094.75. Potential for trending to fresh highs seems inhibited. The bias environment’s exit above the noon hour’s high wasn’t confirmed. Perhaps INTC’s post-close earnings news is weighing on the market.
There is nothing distributive about today’s session. Any immediately pullback would be likely to recover. Meanwhile, the rally remains more vulnerable to extending.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Tuesday back above the original 1.1345 sell signal extended intraday back into the high’s consolidation range. Filling the gap back up to 1.1375 could suffice for ending the bounce, or else a probe of fresh highs would become likely before tending to the outstanding “unfinished business below.”
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up to and through 1248.00 extended higher intraday to attack the outstanding gap at 1259.00. The rally’s origin was too optimistic to launch a credible rally, which is vulnerable to reacting down after filling the gap, or earlier back under 1248.00.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up above the 16.85 target probed it up to 17.10 intraday. Back under 16.70 would signal the target was holding, enabling a reversal down. Otherwise, a second consecutive higher close is needed to confirm a breakout.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The pullback’s 164-12/164-20 pullback target was tested fully but for 1 tick before bouncing back to 165-12. Closing above 165-20 would signal that the consolidation was ending, still needing to close above 166-16.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh highs extended intraday, filling the gap back to last Thursday’s last close within the high’s consolidation range. This is natural resistance, and Monday’s lower close did confirm Friday’s breakout, so no further backing-and-filling is needed before resuming the decline.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up above 1.95 Tuesday extended sharply higher intraday to probe prior highs and to retest the 2.08 target. This fulfills the “unfinished business above” of a third higher close after last week’s confirmed breakout. Extending the rally would next target 2.20-2.25.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Apr 20, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Except for the ongoing quarterly earnings onslaught, the only high-profile or influential econ report is the late-morning Crude Oil report.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
*EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET