S&P
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2099.25 | 2093.00 |
| …would target | 2108.00 | 2101.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2094.25 | 2088.00 |
| …would target | 2089.00 | 2082.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Keeping it real.
Post-open dip bounces off its pullback limit.
Any post-open strength intending to extend needed either to play it cool, or else be relentless. Either hesitate before actually testing the 2098.50 overnight high, or else maintain its recovery if probing above it.
An immediate surge that stopped pessimistically short of touching the overnight high would have been bullish — from a contrarian perspective. So, just imagine the bullishness of pessimism that actually sent price down.
Down, without breaking under relevant support. Without breaking support, despite testing it.
In fact, price action only weakened from the 2093.00 opening print. Remember the 2090.50-2091.00 pullback limit I had described the during the pre-market Tour? It was tested and retested. And its test held.
More so, its test reversed up to fresh post-open highs at 2097.75. Bias-up was renewed, next targeting 2097.00 and 2099.50. Still overlapping 2097.00 at 10:15 does warn of another dip before extending higher. But now holding the 2093.75 bias-up target as support would maintain the recovery.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The reaction down from 2098.50 has dipped a little deeper to test 2094.00. the open’s action should dictate this morning’s direction, if not also its degree of aggression.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Not a beat skipped.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
The bullish WedEX dictated that Monday’s 10-point gap down to 2067.00 would recover. It recovered, and then some, eventually extending 15 points into positive territory at 2088.75 and 7 points above last week’s 2081.75 high. Buyers gained no traction for their efforts.
Overnight action’s new info…
A momentary dip to 2084.75 at the Globex open was recovered to fresh highs testing 2090.00. Its pullback was already resolving up before Europe’s opens, when the rally steepened and eventually extended up to 2098.50. A dip just attacked 2095.00.
If, then…
Having failed to gain traction Monday, gapping up Tuesday is the rally’s only credible path to extending higher without interruption. Not quickly extending the gap up would be vulnerable to reversing back down for the morning, but not necessarily back into negative territory… The rally’s last piece of “unfinished business above” is to retest last year’s last relative highs, now within view at 2110.00. Noise below it begins at 2097.00, which is being attacked overnight. Gapping up to it must extend through it without delay to avoid a corrective dip.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2097.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2093.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2090.50 would be unlikely to exceed the bias-up target through 10:15.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2094.50 | 2088.25 |
| …would target | 2100.00 | 2093.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2088.75 | 2082.50 |
| …would target | 2083.25 | 2077.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.