S&P
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The reaction down from 2069.25 has extended to 2063.50. Extending the rally this morning has little excuse to be delayed much past the open, or to back-and-fill any deeper first.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… New relative highs.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s opening surge held a test of the 2041.50 bias-up signal, putting into play an offsetting test of the bias-down signal. Reversing back up from within 3 points of the objective wasn’t surprising, but not reversing back down again did break the pattern. In fact, that required the ultra-rare occurrence of no-bias trending recovering the 2046.50 bias-up target when the morning’s bias environment lapsed. The afternoon extended higher to 2058.50 before a late dip to 2052.00. Buyers narrowly avoided gaining traction decisively.
Overnight action’s new info…
The rally has extended almost relentlessly. A 5-point pullback from 2063.00 into Europe’s opens offered , and now a 4-1/2 point pullback from 2069.25, have not damaged the trend. The 2066.75 high following the Employment Situation report is being probed. But last Sunday night’s 2071.50 “new Globex trend extreme” remains as yet untouched.
If, then…
Relentless overnight trending often reverses direction intraday, especially when greeting the open at a prior extreme or support/resistance. Breaking the obstacle through the open then often extends the overnight trending intraday. Gapping up above prior highs have only a brief window to attract post-open sponsorship. The immediate past three sessions each extended their gaps up for 45, 40 and then 15 minutes before reversing back down. There is little assurance of another gap up not repeating this pattern, especially being indicated to open at the renewed bias-up target. That little assurance is two pieces of “unfinished business above” — the 2071.50 new Globex trend extreme’s required retest, and an eventual new trend higher close for the current uptrend’s Friday high close.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2066.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2062.25 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal (it’s 2069.00 renewed bias-up target is being tested overnight).
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2066.75 | 2059.50 |
| …would target | 2069.50 | 2062.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2056.00 | 2048.75 |
| …would target | 2049.75 | 2042.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday morning’s surprises weren’t surprising. We expected the 2041.50 bias-up signal to hold its test and trigger no-bias, and we expected its reaction down to hold a test of 2034.00-2035.00. Both were probed by a couple of points, but they held.
Tuesday afternoon’s lack of surprises was surprising. Invalidating the attractions below only extended higher, and did not reverse intraday direction again.
A late dip from 2058.50 pierced the noon hour’s range down to 2052.00. But it was too late for sellers to gain traction, and it was not aggressive as the pattern allows at this stage. So it’s possible that a new upleg is about to begin, and gapping up Wednesday would be credible for launching it.
Of course, we’re still in the ongoing trading range, which has repeatedly greeted each session with a different picture than was left at the prior close. Not already trending up at Wednesday’s open could find sellers back in control.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Stretching it thin.
Still rewarding the morning’s buyers.
Exiting this morning’s bias environment above its 2046.50 bias-up target had invalidated any downside objective put into play at 10:15. That doesn’t equate to a buy signal, but the recovery has extended anyway, up to 2058.50.
That’s 30 points above the low. And almost as many points since a reversal. RSIs have been deteriorating, and now a break lower is testing 2054.50. Any lower would target 2051.00 and potentially lower.
There’s otherwise no active pattern. The bias environment exit was AT the noon hour’s high, not above it and not exactly overlapping it. The final hour’s entry was higher, but that’s not enough on its own to reflect traction.