S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Apr 12, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: None of Tuesday’s several econ reports have a track record for influencing price action. But the day is book-ended by two Fed speakers, one appearing at the unusual late-afternoon time — three, including the closing appearance — all coming one day after Monday’s expedited FOMC meeting.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*Patrick Harper Speaks
9:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET
*John Williams Speaks
3:00 PM ET
Jeffrey Lacker Speaks
4:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2057.00 | 2049.75 |
| …would target | 2062.00 | 2054.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2048.75 | 2041.50 |
| …would target | 2042.50 | 2035.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Holding up, but holding out.
Post-open extension a little too slow for comfort.
While the path back down didn’t have any timing requirement, extending the gap up should have developed with little delay after the open. The delay in extending higher could have been littler, but it did extend higher.
Gapping up to this morning’s 2050.50 bias-up target had dipped quickly to 2047.00, and the first half-hour’s highs were still overlapping the overnight highs. But price has gradually extended higher to 2056.50.
Extending higher has fulfilled the renewed bias-up target at 2055.00. It was being overlapped at 10:15 to avoid doubly renewing the bias-up. Its reaction down is testing 2052.75 into 10:30, targeting 2050.75, and potentially also 2049.75.
We can give that a benefit of the doubt to buyers gaining traction. Probing back under 2034.00-2035.00 may be rejected. Just keep in mind that the optimal rejection would have extended higher sooner. Exiting this morning’s bias environment back under its open could deteriorate very quickly intraday.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight surge’s consolidation back to 2046.00 support has persisted. Its 2051.50 resistance is being retested pre-open. Exiting the open beyond either end of the 2045.50-2049.00 range is likely to extend in that direction.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Reversal city.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s gap up had extended a little higher post-open, but only enough to retest the 2053.00 pre-open high by 5 ticks. Weakening indications and a week of reversals suggested the opening strength wasn’t durable. In fact, the balance of the session trended back down. A very late low finally filled the gap back to Thursday’s 2035.00 close by 5 ticks, then bounced to close at 2041.00-2042.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
After bleeding into intraday action Friday, last week’s reversals have now bled into overnight action. Sunday night’s choppy open eventually resolved down to retest Friday’s low and attack 2033.00. Bouncing to 2041.00-2042.00 resolved down again into and out of Europe’s opens. Retesting 2033.00 reacted back up quickly, producing a surge to 2051.50. Sideways ranging from there has been supported by 2046.00.
If, then…
Friday’s intraday decline had neutralized the attraction below back to Thursday’s close. Chipping away at the support of the week-long range’s lower-end stopped short of actually breaking support, as the test held through the close. But any break lower — especially through Monday’s open — would be credible for launching a deeper correction. By the same token, almost any firm open would be credible for returning back to the range’s highs, potentially avoiding a deeper correction to launch a breakout to new highs. The overnight drop had suggested initially that the break lower was coming. But the surge’s recovery is suggesting the latter scenario. We might not know until the open has either maintained or rejected a recovery above Thursday and Friday’s opening ranges, which is essentially 2045.50-2049.00.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2049.75 would be likely to trigger the 2045.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2044.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2053.50 would be likely also to recover the 2050.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.