S&P
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2064.25 | 2056.00 |
| …would target | 2067.50 | 2061.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2056.25 | 2048.00 |
| …would target | 2050.75 | 2042.50 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Bias-down, not out.
Substantial recovery gets ahead of itself.
Opening at 2039.25 and probing fresh lows created a bottoming pattern that was sealed upon recovering 2038.50. Its reward was expected to be a substantial morning-long rally.
We got the substantial part already, but not yet the morning-long.
The 20498.75 bias-down signal was touched by 10:15. Actually, within 3 minutes of 10:15, invoking the grace period. It was not recovered through 10:30, triggering late bias-down.
Late bias-down, or not, the 2038.50 buy signal’s latest pullback limit held its test to avoid being violated. Another surge extended the recovery to 2053.50.
Two substantial rallies do not equate to morning-long.
Being a bias-down environment, the 2048.75 bias-down signal should define the range’s upper-end. This requires its retest. Triggering bias-down had put into play a retest of the 2042.50 bias-down target. So, 2048.75 need not hold as support.
After at least testing 2048.75, this being only a late bias-down environment, the rally could still resume. Meanwhile, a deeper pullback would be more credible.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Knee-jerk reaction to the pre-open Employment Situation report blipped-up a couple of points to 2046.25. Ranging there for several minutes ultimately resolved down 2039.25, and its reaction has resolved down to 2036.50.
Avoiding 2032.00 could depend upon opening above 2039.25, and trending up through the morning could depend upon exiting the open above 2044.50. Otherwise, 2032.00 could be the last line of defense against trending down relentlessly into the afternoon.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Flushed out, or flushing?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Eking higher through the morning had attacked 2060.00 when the noon hour began. The next two timing windows were spent sliding to attack overnight lows within 6 ticks at 2048.75. The final hour’s bounce only attacked 2056.00 instead of recovering it, still undermining the rally’s momentum.
Overnight action’s new info…
Choppy ranging eventually touched 2056.00, which was rejected abruptly. Sliding into and out of Europe’s opens reached 2042.25. A 7-point bounce resolved down to momentarily touch 2041.25, quickly settling in to range narrowly around 2044.50.
If, then…
Including last night’s slide, three relatively substantial downlegs have developed since Wednesday morning’s attack on 2065.00. There is a fine line between temporary correction and momentum reversal, especially ahead of a high-profile influential econ report like this morning’s monthly payrolls. The pullback is vulnerable to becoming a trend reversal if not already ended by the open. While 2044.50‘s test would suffice for completing a pullback, it has room for noise down to 2039.25. The next lower objective at 2032.00 could be a last line of defense before reinstating 1980.00. All of which could become moot by a favorable reaction that opens back within yesterday’s range.
First Trade…
No preliminary levels are considered prior to an Employment Situation report.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2071.50 | 2062.00 |
| …would target | 2077.25 | 2068.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2058.00 | 2048.75 |
| …would target | 2052.00 | 2042.50 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.