S&P
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
The decline from 2059.50 touched 2048.75 as Thursday’s bias environment was being exited under the noon hour’s low. But the final hour’s entry was still overlapping the bias environment’s 2050.50 low. So, sellers gained no traction for the substantial effort.
At least they prevented closing above 2056.00, despite having probed above it for a second consecutive day. But the close was also maintained above its 2051.00 counterpart, a small victory for buyers.
Without gaining traction, trending Friday must begin by gapping beyond a prior relevant high or low. Lacking the basis for a “session-long” decline or rally setup, trending through the morning would be vulnerable to reversing. The next higher attraction above is 2067.00-2068.00, and below is 2044.50 and 2039.25.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Saving the best for last.
Noon hour slide attracts sellers.
Flt-to-higher choppy ranging eked gradually higher this morning. Recovering from its pre-open dip to 2053.00 had extended to 2059.50 at noon.
Sliding since then has been relentless, trending down to fresh session lows at 2049.00.
The slide’s purpose could have been similar to yesterday’s, expending a lot of selling pressure without it gaining traction for the effort. But today’s slide is threatening to enter the final hour under the 2050.50 bias environment low, after exiting the bias environment under the noon hour lows.
Sellers may be gaining traction into Friday’s Employment Situation report.
Extending back down to the 2047.25 overnight low would likely give way to 2044.50, and potentially also to 2039.25. If sellers do gain traction, then overdoing it already could risk inverting the traction back up, and might be the only way to end the week rallying.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up to fresh highs Thursday created a new piece of “unfinished business above” at the session open, which will want to be tested from below before a top can fully form. Closing above 1.1435 could avoid topping, if probed aggressively.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Having held a test of the 1218.00-1224.50 range’s upper-end at Wednesday’s pullback low, bouncing again Thursday could qualify as another recovery effort by closing above Tuesday’s 1242.00 high.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up through Monday’s 15.38 high and extending its recovery suggests a bounce targeting 15.88 is underway, so long as Friday closes higher, too.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s dip to test 163-16 support held through Thursday and firmed intraday, testing Friday’s 164-10 high whose break would restart the recovery.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The retest of last week’s lows held for a second consecutive session Thursday, while firming back up to 39.05 resistance, whose recovery would position the pattern for also triggering the 39.55 buy signal.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Momentarily printing a fresh high at Thursday’s open improved the position of strength greeting the morning’s EIA report, but it didn’t prevent reacting down anyway to 1.93 support. Now closing above 1.99 would resume the rally targeting 2.07.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Apr 1, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monthly payrolls are usually reported in a vacuum, not with any other econ reports, so this month’s report may trigger a more volatile response. Meanwhile, the reaction to post-open econ reports often duplicates the reaction to pre-open reports. There are three other post-open reports, and one already has a track record for influencing price action.
William Dudley Speaks
THU 5:00 PM ET
**Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
*Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
*Loretta Mester Speaks
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2069.00 | 2060.50 |
| …would target | 2074.25 | 2066.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2061.75 | 2053.50 |
| …would target | 2056.50 | 2048.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.