S&P
Post-open Review… Spinning wheels.
The market has become stuck in Alabama mud.
From the movie “My Cousin Vinny” we learn that anyone who’s been stuck in Alabama mud knows your car needs a limited slip differential to extricate itself. Step on the gas, and one tire spins while the other does nothing.
This assumed only one tire is in the mud. This morning’s price action has both buyers and sellers stuck, ranging choppily around 2056.00. Both tires are spinning wildly, without gaining traction either way.
The first hour’s first three 15-minute checkpoints overlapped 2056.00. That had already warned us trending this morning would be difficult or unlikely. There are five 15-minute checkpoints, including the open and the one-hour mark. with only one not overlapping 2056.00. And, then, only barely.
Today’s most bullish scenario was likely to be backing-and-filling, expressing pessimism ahead of tomorrow’s payrolls report which can be bullish from a contrarian perspective. Walking gingerly on eggshells can be another option for pre-news price action. It offers limited trading opportunities, except waiting for an extreme to fade. Be careful not to force a trade.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The reaction up from overnight lows has stalled around 2056.00, ranging 1-2 points around it ahead of the open. Not reversing back down almost immediately post-open could probe temporarily above yesterday’s highs. Otherwise, a post-open repeat of the overnight drop to 2047.25 would be repeated, targeting even lower if the bias-down signal is triggered.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Back-and-fill.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Gapping up sharply Wednesday to 2058.00 was extended higher to 2064.50 during the morning’s bias environment. Reversing to fresh session lows attacked 2051.00 during the afternoon’s bias environment. A lot of selling pressure was expended without it triggering bias-down or leaving positive territory. The final hour’s bounce to 2060.50 released a lot of pent-up buying pressure, and the close drifted back down.
Overnight action’s new info…
Wednesday’s closing drift extended through the overnight Globex open, eventually probing under Wednesday’s low down to 2050.25. A temporary bounce to 2054.50 resolved down to fresh lows at 2047.25, and its reaction up has returned to 2054.50.
If, then…
Having probed under yesterday’s lows a couple of times overnight, exiting the open within yesterday’s range could establish a floor for the day. Attacking yesterday’s highs would be likely, if not also probing fresh highs intraday. Resuming the rally through yesterday’s highs would not. Otherwise, backing-and-filling ahead of tomorrow’s Employment Situation report remains likelier, probing deeper under the overnight lows.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2054.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2051.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2049.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2070.75 | 2061.50 |
| …would target | 2076.50 | 2067..25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2060.25 | 2051.00 |
| …would target | 2053.75 | 2044.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
But for a few ticks, Wednesday’s 2058.00 open was still being overlapped at Wednesday’s close. Exceeding the morning’s 2056.00 bias-up target had renewed the bias-up signal, but its 2061.25 renewed bias-up target had been met already and held. That setup had warned of that morning trending attempts would fail.
Not that trending wouldn’t be attempted, but that it would fail. And it was attempted and it did fail. A lot of selling pressure was expended intraday without triggering a bias-down and without leaving positive territory. That already produced an afternoon bounce, and didn’t gain traction for the effort, so extending higher Thursday largely relies on already extending higher overnight.
There having been no net post-open improvement Wednesday, and Thursday being the day before March’s Employment Situation report, backing-and-filling wouldn’t be surprising. Already trending higher Thursday would risk discounting bad payrolls Friday, which could only fulfill expectations but not exceed them.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.