S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Extending higher Wednesday not only fulfilled the 1.1335 attraction, but also probed fresh highs up to 1.1391. Having begun the high’s retest from only a relatively shallow pullback, a topping pattern may now form and trigger back under 1.1319.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite probing higher after Tuesday’s close, Wednesday’s open gapped down and eventually fell further to 1223.00 support, whose recovery through the close maintains potential for resuming the recovery. Closing back under 1216.50 would instead launch a new downleg.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Closing above Monday’s 15.38 high Wednesday, would have confirmed Tuesday’s recovery of 15.25, but initially probing above 15.40 was retraced back down to and through 15.25. Closing above 15.38 would still target 15.88.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s close above both 163-16 and Friday’s 164-10 prior high failed to confirm with a higher close Wednesday. The intraday reaction down to 162-23 recovered 163-16 whose recovery through the close would avoid greeting Friday’s Employment Situation report from a position of weakness.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up above 39.05 Wednesday was appropriate for rejecting Tuesday’s non-trending gap down that only hovered at prior lows. Initially extending higher also tested the 39.55 buy signal, but its reaction down filled the gap back down to Tuesday’s 38.35 close.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still firming Wednesday not only confirmed the recovery above 1.85 targeting 1.99, but also greets Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength likely either to extend sharply higher, or else first absorb an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down.
Mid-day Update… Still holding out, and a little up.
Well off the high, but still in positive territory.
Each probe above 2061.25 this morning was only brief, once touching 2064.50. That one was too much, and it reacted down to fresh post-open lows attacking 2054.25. Extending down during the noon hour is now attacking 2052.00.
Two hours of relentless selling, and 12 points off the high. Seems bearish.
But that’s still 1 point above the afternoon’s bias-down signal, and 5 points in positive territory.
Bias-down didn’t trigger. Maybe it will be probed anyway, which would be “no-bias trending” that requires being retraced. Waiting an hour before probing lower would target 2039.25. Otherwise, back above 2056.25 would start putting into play fresh session highs.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Mar 31, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Maybe the monthly Challenger report and weekly Claims will be more influential ahead of Friday’s payrolls. At least, anything suggesting a weakening economy would be bullish for stocks, but the inverse isn’t necessarily true as fewer people believe a rate hike is coming. The Fed speaker will have spoken already Wednesday afternoon, so any knee-jerk reaction to his remarks should be temporary. The post-open PMI is always influential.
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Gallup Good Jobs Rate
8:30 AM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
9:30 AM ET
*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2070.50 | 2061.25 |
| …would target | 2076.50 | 2067.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2060.25 | 2051.00 |
| …would target | 2053.75 | 2044.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Holding up, but holding out.
Probing fresh highs, if not actually extending.
Opening weakness touched the 2056.00 bias-up target as support and reacted back up to fresh highs at 2063.25. A reaction down to 2059.00 remained under pressure through 10:15, holding the 2061.25 renewed bias-up target.
This is still a bias-up environment. A renewed bias-up environment whose target was exceeded through 10:15.
Exceeding the 2061.25 renewed bias-up target through 10:15 would have put into play 2067.00-2068.00, but that was avoided. Also avoided was a break back under the 2056.00 bias-up target. And neither was exceeded by 10:30, which doesn’t suggest any sponsorship is available for trending.
A buy signal would trigger above 2062.50 (being tested now) targeting 2067.00-2068.00, and under 2059.75 would target 2054.25. Trending to either this morning would be vulnerable to reversing sharply. Not trending this morning would be likely to trend this afternoon.