S&P
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Consolidating between 2006.00-2009.50 began slipping at its lower-end instead of bouncing again. Then the slipping began sliding, and suddenly 1997.00 has been touched. That’s probably the next convincing trending attempt off of yesterday’s equilibrium close. Recovering 2002.00-2003.00 through the open or not recovering it should be the difference between holding this morning’s 1999.50 bias-down signal, or triggering it.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Holding up.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s open gapped down to attack Friday’s 1996.00 lows, which held. But it wasn’t much of a test, so the rubber band wasn’t stretched enough for a snap back up. But the balance of the session did trend up to 2007.00, retracing 61.8% of the gap down. All but one timing window printing a higher high.
Overnight action’s new info…
The reward for holding a test of Friday’s low was to fill the gap back to Monday’s 2009.50 close, if not also to probe Monday’s 2015.00 high. Tuesday’s rally extended to 2009.50, where a surge attacked 2012.00. Reactions down under 2006.00 recovered to retest 2009.50, which have reacted down again to 2006.00.
If, then…
Holding a 61.8% retracement is often “equilibrium.” Trending attempts are likely in one direction, and then in the other, each being very convincing before reversing again. Late-afternoon tends to allow a more successful attempt. That template happens to align well with this afternoon’s FOMC events, with the policy statement being followed by Yellen’s quarterly Q&A.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2012.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2009.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2006.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2019.50 | 2009.50 |
| …would target | 2025.75 | 2015.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2009.50 | 1999.50 |
| …would target | 2003.50 | 1993.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
The day began at the edge of the precipice, gapping down to critical support at Friday’s low. Extending deeper would have launched a much deeper downleg. Avoiding that would squeeze the trapped shorts to probe the drop’s origin.
At least, avoiding a post-open drop should have recovered. Perhaps because Tuesday’s open barely touched Friday’s low, instead of probing it, Tuesday’s session only bounced. It wasn’t actually a bounce. The intraday series of higher highs and higher lows qualified as a trend. And it wasn’t random noise. Only one timing window didn’t participate (the noon hour).
A 61.8% retracement of the open’s drop had defined the afternoon’s high, recovered only by surging into the close. That’s essentially “equilibrium.” It suggests a very wide-ranging session Wednesday without trending until late-afternoon. The stage is set for Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC policy statement and Chairman Yellen’s quarterly Q&A.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still hovering at 1.1105 Tuesday, instead of breaking lower, keeps alive the likelihood for at least probing a fresh high before reversing down.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Further probing under 1260.70 and 1250.20 extended down to 1228.00 intraday, attacking the 1223.50 and 1216.50 targets which remains in-play so long as bounces now hold any test of 1243.00.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The reaction from Monday’s false break higher gapped down Tuesday to test the critical 15.25 support whose break would target 14.90 and lower.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Rallying overnight to probe the 162-07 buy signal by 10 ticks was retraced Tuesday morning to fill the gap back down to Monday’s 161-16 close. Filling it wasn’t required, but there is no unfinished business below that might impede another rally effort.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The 36.95 sell signal had supported Monday’s gap down, and gapping down under it Tuesday was supported around 36.00. Not trending down intraday keeps the door open to retesting last week’s highs up to 39.00 where a more substantial top can form.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s restrained optimism was resolved by gapping Tuesday to test 1.90. Optimism remained restrained as an intraday dip filled the gap back down to Monday’s 1.84 close.