S&P
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2004.50 | 2002.50 |
| …would target | 2011.00 | 2009.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1994.50 | 1992.50 |
| …would target | 1988.00 | 1986.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
PRE-CLOSE Wrap (recording & summary)
That’s right, PRE-market Wrap. We held it one hour early today as I am away from the screens for the final hour…
The morning’s 1993.75 bias-up signal had been probed during its no-bias environment, requiring a complete retracement. In the interim, the noon hour’s pattern had formed a reversal pattern that produces one last leg in the trend’s direction before failing. So, its test of 2007.50 was reversed back under a 2004.25 sell signal, and extended down relentlessly to 1990.75.
We’ll review that and more during this weekend’s Saturday Review — Its link will be emailed overnight.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the PRE-CLOSE Wrap recording here.
Mid-day Update… Anti-gravity sucks, too.
TODAY’S MARKET WRAP WILL BE HELD ONE HOUR EARLY AT 3:03 PM ET, AND I WILL BE AWAY FROM THE SCREENS THROUGH THE SESSION’S LAST HOUR.
The noon hour had tested this afternoon’s 2002.50 bias-up signal, but it wasn’t triggered. That hasn’t prevented probing above it to 2007.50 in what is called “no-bias trending.” The last time we saw that was way, way back this morning.
No bias-trending requires retracing at least to the bias signal that should have defined the no-bias range. This morning’s is 1993.75, and it still requires retest. Meanwhile, 2992.50 is being tested as the bias environment lapse comes within view.
The noon hour’s pattern suggests a fresh session high would print. It also suggests the higher would be vulnerable to reversing down. Exiting the bias environment under prior highs would be bearish.
Otherwise, not reversing down obviously by the time the final hour begins, would remain vulnerable to extending higher into the close.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s gap up and extension above the 1.0900 buy signal was extended higher Friday, to within just several pips of its 1.1050 objective.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The lower-end of the 1274.00-1288.00 noise range above the 1265.00 target was tested Friday, opening the door to a reversal setup forming.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s surge finally neutralized the longstanding attraction above at the 15.70 gap up above what was all prior highs at the time, and also filled an interim gap close. It’s also a breakout to fresh relative highs, but a second consecutive higher close to confirm is unlikely on Mondays. Back under 15.55 would signal the surge had failed.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Reacting down twice Friday — both before and after the Employment Situation report — tested fresh lows around 161-24 support that had defined the week’s earlier low. The drop’s origin after closing above 164-14 suggests the dip is only temporary. Closing back above 162-20 would signal the trend reversing up.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The daily probe of slightly higher highs was accelerated Friday by a surge to attack 36.00 which allows raising the sell signal to 33.95.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh lows overnight and Friday followed Thursday’s poor EIA reaction for having greeted the news from a position of weakness. Recovering the lows through the close didn’t alter what is still an ongonig series of lower lows and lower highs, whose buy signal is triggered above 1.70.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Mar 7, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s busy calendar isn’t very influential to price action. But the afternoon’s Fed speaker is unusual timing that could exacerbate any reaction.
Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
8:30 AM ET
Labor Market Conditions Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
*Stanley Fischer Speaks
2:30 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET