S&P
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2004.75 | 2002.50 |
| …would target | 2011.25 | 2009.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1995.25 | 1993.00 |
| …would target | 1988.25 | 1986.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Both ends of the spectrum.
Payrolls’ surge drops back into the range.
The pre-open Employment Situation report was greeted at 1995.00. Its knee-jerk reaction surged to 2002.25, which reacted down quickly to 1988.00. The open was greeted back at 1995.00.
A post-open dip back under 1993.00 targeted a retest of the pre-open bounce, or at least to within 3 ticks, which was fulfilled down to 1988.50. That post-open dip extended to 1984.00.
And that post-open dip held its test of the 1985.00 bias-down signal. So, dspite having tested the 1993.75 bias-up signal, and offsetting retest of it was put into play. The retest has been fulfilled already. In fact, it is extending to also test 1997.25 resistance.
This is still a no-bias environment. At least a pullback to the 1993.75 bias-up signal is likely at some point. Its test might hold and launch a retest of the preopen high, although its retest isn’t required. Retesting the pre-open high first would be even more vulnerable to reversing back down.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Already attacking fresh highs up to 1996.00 ahead of the Employment Situation report then surged on the news. This morning’s 2001.00 bias-up target was probed by 5 ticks before reacting down sharply. And then reacting down considerably. Yesterday’s 1991.00 close was probed by 3 points down to 1988.00.
Now this morning’s 1993.75 bias-up signal is being tested again pre-open. Its resistance could launch a fresh low down to 1986.00 where not recovering would mean trending straight down through the noon hour.
Otherwise, the 1993.75 bias-up signal could be probed, or even triggered, but still not assure trending up any more than is necessary to correct or retest the pre-open highs.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Mildly optimistic, again.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s choppy ranging duplicated a choppy overnight that had probed new highs attacking 1288.00. Rallying into the afternoon extended to higher highs attacking the rally’s 1293.00 potential to within 5 ticks. No traction was gained for the effort, despite shrugging off anxiousness ahead of Friday’s payrolls report to produce a new recovery high close.
Overnight action’s new info…
After firming to touch 1993.00, a pullback fell to 1987.00 through Europe’s opens. Consolidating there was reversed up, recovering to fresh highs at 1994.50.
If, then…
The overnight probe of fresh highs is so far a singular probe, so it is not a “new Globex trend extreme” that would require intraday retest. Having produced fresh highs overnight after dipping under yesterday’s close, greeting the open under the overnight highs would be vulnerable to tending straight down this morning — at least, it would be a last line of defense. Recovering that deep of a dip through the open, or simply avoiding the dip altogether, would be similarly vulnerable to trending straight up.
First Trade…
Preliminary indications are not considered before an Employment Situation report.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1996.25 | 1993.75 |
| …would target | 2003.25 | 2000.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 1987.50 | 1985.00 |
| …would target | 1981.50 | 1979.00 |
| Signal status:NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS PARAMETERS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.