S&P
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Being within the orbit of Wednesday night’s 1987.00 highs made their retest likely, despite not being required. Testing the upside attraction right at the bias environment’s exit could have gone either way. Resistance could have repelled the recovery, but instead resistance accelerated the recovery higher.
Potential to 1993.00 was attacked to within 5 ticks. That is the best singular representation of a cluster of targets in this area. There being potential for a knee-jerk reaction to the morning’s news, we should be aware of outliers at 1997.25 and 2001.00.
The recovery high close doesn’t prevent reacting down at Friday’s Employment Situation report, no more than the rally’s momentum assures reacting up. But reacting down would likely be only temporary, at least until retesting Thursday’s close from below. And since Thursday’s rally gained no traction for its effort, extending durably higher requires gapping up.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Fearless.
Still probing fresh highs ahead of oncoming news.
This morning’s no-bias had put into play an offsetting test of it 1986.00 bias-up signal. It was a late signal, so the test wasn’t required. But it was fulfilled anyway.
And still being within the orbit of overnight highs attacking 1988.00, their retest also became likely. That was done by fresh highs testing 1989.50.
Reacting down while entering the final hour overlapped the bias environment’s high. That didn’t help to confirm whether traction was gained by the bias environment’s exit above the noon hour’s high. Fresh highs through the 3:10-3:20 window would still do that.
Good luck with that. Although there remains upside potential to test 1993.00, it’s not required. And sponsorship often becomes paralyzed by anxiousness ahead of the Employment Situation report.
So extending higher is possible, but difficult , if not unlikely. Drifting back down toward or to session lows is likelier.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Repeated testing of the decline’s 1.0865 support finally reacted up Thursday to trigger the 1.0900 buy signal targeting 1.1050.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Surging through 1242.00 and then above 1248.00 Thursday was extended to test 1261.00, still targeting fresh highs up to 1265.00.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Extending its recent recovery Thursday tested the 15.15 buy signal whose recovery puts into play a test of the 15.70 gap above.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday failed to confirm Tuesday’s deep drop by ranging narrowly around 162-14, allowing Thursday’s surge to test 163-14 whose recovery would signal the drop had ended, and also 163-24 whose recovery would signal a new upleg underway. Both tests reacted down initially.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Probing slightly higher again Thursday above 35.00 still continued overlapping prior highs, leaving the door open to triggering the sell signal that was raised Wednesday to 33.00.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report wasn’t greeted from a position of strength. Fresh lows overnight Its favorable knee-jerk reaction to the news momentarily probed positive territory before dipping back down to test the open’s gap. That neutralizes the gap’s attraction below, and allows a recovery above 1.70 to seal a bottom.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Mar 4, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s pre-open monthly payrolls is often isolated as the only econ report. But Friday afternoon keeps the influential items active with the rig count and a Fed speaker.
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
*Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
*Rob Kaplan Speaks
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1983.75 | 1981.25 |
| …would target | 1988.50 | 1986.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1978.00 | 1975.50 |
| …would target | 1971.50 | 1969.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.