S&P
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Pre-open action has hovered off of the 1896.00 low back up to 1901.50. It should be obvious through the open if the extreme sentiment is a sentiment extreme, by holding 1898.50 and recovering 1905.00 if not also 1914.50. Otherwise, the next lower attraction is 1890.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Night fall.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
After bouncing from an overnight slide, Tuesday’s open was flat with Monday’s 1936.50 futures close. The slide resumed anyway, to 1919.00 in the morning and then much later down to 1916.00. Not too late for 7-1/2 point bounce, or for the futures close to retrace it all back down to 1916.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s late drop extended down immediately to range narrowly around 1914.00. Bouncing 4-1/2 points resolved down to attack 1909.00. Bouncing 11 points to a fresh high was also temporary until Europe’s opens. Its reversal has extended sharply lower to 1896.00.
If, then…
Monday’s high left outstanding overbought RSIs requiring a retest at 1944.00. The gap back up to its 1942.00 cash session closing equivalent is an attraction, too. An opportunity gap down irrecoverably Tuesday was rejected. So, the subsequent downleg’s context is of a temporary correction. Testing “lower prior highs” as support is not unusual before recovering. Problem: 1914.00 was the lowest lower prior high with potential to be tested, and likely to launch the high’s retest. But the overnight action has fallen well under it. The extreme sentiment of relentless overnight trending is often a sentiment extreme that reverses direction at the open. The window for that isn’t very wide, and not very forgiving — extending down post-open could double the overnight slide by noon.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1905.00 would also likely recover the 1908.00 bias-down target by 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 1901.00 would be likely to extend down to 1890.00.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1924.75 | 1921.75 |
| …would target | 1930.00 | 1927.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1917.00 | 1914.00 |
| …would target | 1911.00 | 1908.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
The final hour’s break under the morning’s 1918.50 low had extended quickly down to 1915.75. Bouncing back above the prior lows didn’t hold up — it was retraced down to 1917.00.
And there’s still room down to Friday’s “lower prior highs” around 1914.50 to still be a healthy corrective leg.Gapping back up above 1926.00 would be more bullish.
Otherwise, a durable downleg remains unlikely at this stage. Having said that, extending under Friday’s 1 lows would be difficult to recover any time soon.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Back-and-filled-in.
Probing the range’s lower-end.
After recording to unchanged around 1936.50, the morning’s slide back down to and through the 1924.50 overnight low reached 1918.75. An 8-point reaction up has returned back to the morning’s low, and now finally through it to 1915.75.
That last break came right after entering the final hour. So, too late to gain traction. And the bias environment’s exit, although higher, was within the noon hour’s range.
False break?
Possibly. RSIs diverged positively into a retest of 1915.75. Back above 1918.50 would start to signal momentum reversing up. Extending above 1921.25 would confirm.
Otherwise, extending lower would next target Friday’s “lower prior highs” down to 1914.00.