S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Tuesday didn’t exploit the pattern’s ongoing vulnerability to plunging, but neither has the series of lower lows and lower highs been disrupted.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s close under 1216.60 was isolated by gapping up Tuesday back above it. But only back to 1222.60 whose recovery is still needed to trigger the 1242.00 and 1248.00 targets.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Tuesday helped to isolate Monday’s dip as holding its test of 15.15 support so the outstanding gap above at 15.70 could be filled.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sliding sharply to test 165-00 at Tuesday’s open was not credible for this stage of the pattern. I noted during the pre-market Tour that proving it was an anomaly required only attacking unchanged. Unchanged was recovered by a surge well into positive territory, offering further confirmation that a test of 170-00 remains in-play.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
An early-morning bounce Tuesday was rejected by a deeper slide through the morning, further confirming that a retest of the decline’s original target and the gap back to its 28.80 low close remain in-play.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The pattern’s only bullish setup immediately available for Tuesday was to gap up and close positive, with an interim probe of fresh lows. In fact, Tuesday’s open did gap up and immediately reverse down to new lows. A recovery wasn’t indicated, but forming the setup over two sessions could still qualify.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Feb 24, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s most influential items are two Fed speakers. They follow another speaker overnight, and they’re staggered in the morning and afternoon.
Stanley Fischer Speaks
WED 8:30 PM ET
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*Jeffrey Lacker Speaks
8:00 AM ET
PMI Services Flash
9:45 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
2-Yr FRN Note Auction
11:30 AM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
*Rob Kaplan Speaks
1:15 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1930.25 | 1927.25 |
| …would target | 1935.25 | 1932.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1923.25 | 1920.25 |
| …would target | 1917.75 | 1914.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Retracing the overnight dip.
Post-open congestion breaks lower.
Already recovering 13-1/2 points to touch 1938.00 before the open was unable to extend any higher. Opening at or around this morning’s 1933.00 bias-down signal ranged choppily there through the first half hour.
Then it broke lower. The 1927.25 bias-down target was being tested at 10:15. But not exceeded. It’s still a bias-down environment, but it should be noted that holding a test of the target is often a bottom.
Oversold RSIs at he low require its eventual retest. Nothing requires that retest to hold as support. Regardless, the bullish scenario would likely exit the morning’s bias environment already in rally mode. Its reward would be to probe above yesterday’s highs.
The 1924.50 overnight low can be tested, or even probed, without yet reversing the trend down. Indeed, post-open overlapping of yesterday’s range makes a durable downleg unlikely at this stage.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Recovering from the overnight drop has extended higher to touch 1938.00. That’s equidistant between yesterday’s futures close, and the cash session closing equivalent which is both an attraction and resistance.
Still, just trying to recover from the overnight drop, instead of exploiting what could have launched a durable downleg, suggests that yesterday’s highs will be probed. The question is whether that gets underway this morning, or after a post-open dip.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.