S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Feb 23, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s Consumer Confidence report is reliable for influencing price action. The post-open housing sector report could be influential if it contradicts the pre-open housing report’s implications, or confirms an earlier surprise.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
*Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1944.25 | 1941.00 |
| …would target | 1949.00 | 1946.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1937.50 | 1934.50 |
| …would target | 1931.25 | 1928.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Good to the last pop.
Actively bullish WedEX remains influential.
Dipping into the open probed only momentarily under the 1933.00 area. It was just long enough to introduce a preliminary buy signal above 1934.25. And that was just in time to capture a surge from 1932.00.
The surge also triggered the more reliable buy signal above 1936.75. That was on the way to 1940.50, which pierced January’s high.
An obligatory dip recovered to fresh highs at 1943.00. Room for a temporary pullback down to 1936.75-1938.25 has been touched, barely.
The bullish WedEX’s influence remains intact. The degree to which price has extended already, and its steep slope, only reinforces that continued influence — despite the inclination being to suspect that it is tiring.
Meanwhile, probing a fresh high is entirely consistent with the scenario described during this weekend’s Saturday Review. Although the shallowest of probes was enough to fulfill its retest, there is potential to 1952.00-1953.00 The bullish WedEX suggests at least a probe above 1943.00.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight surge’s consolidation has continued pre-open. Resuming the bullish WedEX’s influence should be obvious during the open, if the bullish influence remains intact.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Actively bullish, indeed.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s shallow gap down consolidated the overnight dip through the bias timing window down to 1898.50. Tests of both bias-down parameters held through 10:15, although the bias-down signal was recovered late at 10:30. Anyway, the morning firmed up to 1916.00, and the balance of the session ranged sideways.
Overnight action’s new info…
Gapping down several points Sunday night attacked Friday afternoon’s 1908.00 low. That was soon recovered on the way to higher and higher highs throughout the night. Most recently attacking 1938.75 has reacted down to 1932.50.
If, then…
The overnight rally does not directly fulfill the actively bullish WedEX, but it does help to confirm the market’s upside vulnerability that was originally signaled Wednesday. However, having rallied aggressively per the signal’s remaining influence, a post-open recovery from reacting down would fulfill the signal. As would extending the rally throughout the morning. Regardless, no compelling sell signal is likely until the bias environment comes within view of lapsing.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1929.25-1930.25 would be likely to extend back down to the 1923.00 bias-up signal as support. Exiting the open above 1932.00-1932.50 would maintain the upward momentum.