S&P
Sunday night’s Globex chaRTroom link.
Brexit gained a higher profile after Friday’s close, and immediately began to roil the currency markets. And some sort of a ceasefire may be on Syria’s horizon. Meanwhile, mysteriously absent from media reports is any mention of the bullish WedEX still in-play…
CLICK HERE to monitor price action overnight.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1921.00 | 1918.00 |
| …would target | 1926.00 | 1923.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1910.75 | 1907.75 |
| …would target | 1904.50 | 1901.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
The afternoon bias environment was exited by dipping under 1909.50 to 1908.00. The final hour was spent recovering the afternoon’s 1914.50 high up to 1915.25.
That modest fresh high fulfills the bullish WedEX signal. Not so much the higher high, as absorbing a fresh low. Hardly worth it, except that the signal influences Monday morning, too. And this action Friday afternoon dictates a very specific resolution coming out of the weekend.
We’ll talk about that at the Saturday Review. I’ll send out its link overnight.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Mid-day Update… Waiting on WedEX.
lede .
This morning’s bias environment was exited above its 1907.00 bias-down signal. Being a late no-bias that rejected tests of both bias-down parameters, that exit keeps alive potential for offsetting tests of this morning’s 1920.00 and 1926.50 bias-up parameters.
In fact, the bias environment exit touched 1916.00. The afternoon no-bias bias environment ranged sideways, 2-3 points either way around 1911.00-1912.00, almost exclusively in negative territory.
Now the afternoon bias environment is lapsing. Its late bounce to 1914.50 has reacted down to the range’s 1909.50 lower-end. This dip must be reversed back up above 1911.00-1912.00 and higher into the final hour if WedEX’s bullish influence is intact. Fresh afternoon lows into the final hour would be difficult to recover today.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still being vulnerable to collapse while no new rally leg is likely, Friday traded flat-to-higher. Almost any immediate weakness would be likely to extend down sharply.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s rally had extended post-close to fulfill its 1240.00 objective. Reacting down from there overnight held the 1222.50 buy signal as support. Back under 1216.50 would signal momentum reversing down. Otherwise, there remains potential up to 1241.00 and 1248.00.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s narrow ranging prevented filling the gap outstanding above, which suggests that a downleg isn’t ready to begin.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Closing above Tuesday’s ~166-00 high Thursday extended Friday to 167-04 before dipping to 166-04. A second consecutive higher close Friday confirms the gap back up to 169-31 is in-play.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s dip extended down from Thursday’s retest of Tuesday’s 31.15 prior high, still targeting a retest of the decline’s 26.40 target and the gap outstanding there, probably down to 25.63.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Friday and trending lower intraday to new lows under 1.80 prevented a durable rally from forming, and created potential to 1.75 or 1.55.