S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Feb 22, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Only one regional Fed survey has a track record for influencing price action, and Monday’s isn’t it. The post-open PMI flash does have some record for influencing price action.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
*PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
9:45 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1921.25 | 1918.00 |
| …would target | 1926.00 | 1923.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1908.00 | 1905.00 |
| …would target | 1903.25 | 1900.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Floored.
Pre-open dip tries extending, fails.
The 1901.75 bias-down target had been attacked to within 2 ticks before the open, which then surged to 1909.00. Another dip extended to fresh lows at 1898.75.
That low was retested after an interim bounce up to the 1907.00 bias-down signal. But the bias-down target held as support. And eventually, so did the bias-down signal, triggering a late no-bias.
Now yesterday’s “higher prior lows” are being tested up to 1912.00.
Rejecting tests of both bias-down parameters puts into play offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters. A timely signal would have required at least the bias-up signal’s test. This morning’s late signal doesn’t require anything, but tests of both bias-up parameters remains likely.
This afternoon’s bullish WedEX continues to suggest that sellers will continually fail their attempts to retake control. That said, exiting the bias environment back under 1907.00 would undermine the afternoon upside.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight slide had bounced from 1906.50 to 1913.25, but that is extending down pre-open to 1902.25. Which is within 3 ticks of support at the 1901.75 bias-down target. Rallying out of the open could recover both bias-down parameters to put into play tests of both bias-up parameter. But not recovering quickly could be especially bearish.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recordings (multiple again today, a situation that should be rectified before this afternoon).
pre-market Tour #1
pre-market Tour #2
pre-market Tour #3
pre-market Tour #4
The First Trade… Still hovering.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Conditions at Wednesday’s close had suggested Thursday’s session was likely to back-and-fill, which it did. Thursday’s 1927.25 high had been probed overnight up to 1933.25, but the open was back at or under 1927.25. And the balance of the session repeatedly dipped to attack 1911.00-1912.00 three times. Sellers gained no traction for their efforts.
Overnight action’s new info…
Eventually firming up to 1922.75 was reversed back down to and through Thursday’s lows to 1906.50. A bounce is now testing 1911.00-1912.00.
If, then…
The actively bullish WedEX signal had been one reason for Thursday’s session to back-and-fill. Its bullish influence Friday afternoon allowed for weak-handed sellers. Thursday’s sellers didn’t gain traction, so that template appears to be developing. Now maintaining the template would disallow gapping down, or else rallying immediately out of a gap down. Gapping down would allow yesterday’s decline to extend despite sellers not having gained traction, which would undermine the afternoon’s impending bullish WedEX influence. So, gapping down without recovering is the only setup that could begin to invalidate the bullish WedEX.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45