S&P
Mid-day Update… Suddenly rudderless.
Afternoon bias avoids triggering.
This morning’s 2450.50 objective was only overlapped while being probed down to 2447.25 as RSIs improved. 
A reaction up was likely, and its likely 2470.00 target was exceeded substantially up to 2489.00. All of which was retraced to the room for noise around 61.8% down to 2454.50.
Now this afternoon’s 2462.25 bias-down signal has triggered noN-bias, for overlapping it at both 1:20 and 1:30. It’s not required to define the window’s lower-end, and its target below doesn’t require being tested. Which isn’t unusual when it’s difficult to generate sponsorship ahead of tomorrow morning’s Employment Situation report.
Meanwhile, holding this morning’s test of Tuesday night’s 2452.00 low can be predictive, either way. Recovering to close back above Friday-Monday’s 2472.00 and 2482.00 relevant lows would signal that the second consecutive intraday recovery was accumulative. But only holding the low’s test without yet recovering would remain vulnerable to extending the decline.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jan 4, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s monthly Employment Situation report is often released with no other high-profile reports, if any reports at all. But reaction to the post-open report is still likely to duplicate the pre-open reports directional reaction. Then the Fed Chair appears on a panel with ex Fed Chairs.
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
*Jerome Powell Speaks
10:15 AM ET
*Raphael Bostic Speaks
10:15 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2483.75 | 2483.75 |
| …would target | 2490.75 | 2490.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2462.00 | 2462.25 |
| …would target | 2451.00 | 2451.25 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… But, wait, there’s more.
Pre-open recovery attempt collapses post-open.
The overnight drop had trended flat-to-lower, blipping-down at its low to test 2463.00 before midnight. 
Bouncing to the range’s 2480.50 upper-end extended higher into the open up to 2493.50.
Resistance at the 2489.50 bias-down target held as price reversed down immediately. And relentlessly. Its likely minimum objective at 2469.50 was soon met, and now also the next likely objective at 2450.50.
1-minute RSI’s higher low is on the cusp of diverging positively, while 3-minute RSI makes a higher oversold low. That’s not a buy signal, but it doesn’t require a retest. Fresh lows attacked 2447.00, and are now bouncing.
Back above 2459.50 would start to signal a corrective bounce targeting 2470.00. Regardless, the decline is free to resume at any time, its next lower likely target being 2425.25.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Retesting the downside.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday night’s open spiked up and surged to attack Monday’s intraday high up to 2521.25. Overnight action plunged under Friday-Monday’s range down to 2452.25. Greeting Wednesday’s open at 2468.00 and extending back up to 2520.50 through the afternoon bias environment was quite a different texture from the overnight plunge. But the intraday rally stopped short of reinstating the bear market rally, waiting too long to close above Monday’s ~2510.00 intraday highs, and then only by 1 point while still being overlapped. No “unfinished business” above was left outstanding.
Overnight action’s new info…
AAPL’s post-close warning has created another overnight plunge to greet a second consecutive session. Wednesday’s late 18-point bounce back to 2511.00 resistance suddenly collapsed down to 2489.00 on the headline. Globex gapped down further and immediately tested 2471.00-2473.00. Flat-to-lower ranging included a blip-down to 2463.00 that only attacked Tuesday’s pre-open low, still 10 points above Tuesday’s overnight low. Recovering to 2481.00 into Europe’s opens has only reacted back down toward the low.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Ultimately, Wednesday’s session wasn’t predictive either way. Which is yet another version of Sunday night and Monday’s sessions, now all three lacking predictive value and directional resolution. Last night’s gap down remains within Tuesday night’s range, which could still hold as support. Its reward would be fresh highs at 2525.25 (Wednesday afternoon’s 2521.25 bias-up target remains outstanding). Meanwhile, the longer that probing under Wednesday afternoon’s 2495.00 lows isn’t recovered, the vulnerability increases to evolving into a deeper decline.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2487.75 would be likely also to exceed the 2489.50 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2490.75 would be likely at least to trigger the 2501.00 bias-down signal at 10:15.