S&P
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2512.75 | 2513.00 |
| …would target | 2521.75 | 2522.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2500.50 | 2501.00 |
| …would target | 2489.00 | 2489.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday night’s open spiked up and surged to attack Monday’s intraday high up to 2521.25. Overnight action plunged under Friday-Monday’s range down to 2452.25. But greeting the open at 2468.00 was extended to 2520.50 through the afternoon bias environment, was quite different from the overnight texture, and stopped short of reinstating the bear market rally.
Ultimately, none of Wednesday’s competing influences won the day:
- The overnight slide didn’t exploit its open under prior lows, which would not have required filling the gap back up to Monday’s close, inhibiting further decline.
- The open delayed recovering back into Friday-Monday’s range to avoid forming a bullish Isolation setup.
- The intraday recovery filled the gap back up to Monday’s ~2505.50 close and tested ~2510.00 intraday highs, neutralizing their attractions above.
- Monday’s ~2510.00 intraday highs weren’t finally recovered before coming within 3 minutes of the cash session close, which would have signaled a new rally leg underway (making 2525.25‘s signal only a formality).
Ultimately, Wednesday’s session wasn’t predictive either way. Which is yet another version of Sunday night and Monday’s sessions, now all three lacking predictive value and directional resolution. Fresh highs would still be attracted to 2525.25 (Wednesday afternoon’s 2521.25 bias-up target remains outstanding). Probing instead under Wednesday afternoon’s 2495.00 lows could evolve into a deeper decline.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still overlapping the 1.1500 buy signal into year-end has resolved by gapping down into the new year. No sell signal is active, and the buy signal remains unchanged.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh highs overnight made another isolation of the 1284.00 target unlikely, which also makes the pattern likely to extend to its next higher target at 1319.50 so long as 1284.00‘s recovery now holds — which was being tested as support at the close.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Flat-to-lower ranging overnight doesn’t require resolving up, but there is no active sell signal. Resolving up anyway would confirm the rally’s momentum remains intact.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Rallying into the new year has confirmed Monday’s breakout from a multi-session range, now requiring at least an eventual third higher close before a reversal down can be credible.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Another night of weakness narrowly avoided probing into the preferable 43.35-44.15 pullback limit before rallying through the 47.00 buy signal. Wednesday morning did probe it by almost 80 cents, at least proving the pattern’s pent-up buying pressure. Actually triggering the buy signal would still require a second consecutive higher close to confirm, and to avoid testing the preferable 43.35-44.15 pullback limit.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
An overnight retest of Monday’s fresh pullback low to another low at 2.90 has stretched the rubber band to the point of all but requiring a snap back up to avoid extending down much deeper.
Mid-day Update… Clawing its way back.
Probing Monday’s highs. Again.
This morning’s 2493.00 bias-down signal triggered late, but retested its bias-down target anyway. Bias-down didn’t prevent a bias-down rally — probing above the bias-down signal during a bias-down environment. Monday’s ~2510.00 highs were retested up to 2512.00.
But a required retracement back to 2493.00 remained outstanding. The noon hour’s dip came within 6 ticks, which is close, but its test remains outstanding. Meanwhile, another rally leg has triggered this afternoon’s 2513.25 bias-up.
So, there are competing attractions. The afternoon’s 2521.25 bias-up target is more influential, more so than to actually test this morning’s 2493.00 bias-down signal. And fresh highs may yet extend higher to 2525.25, where we would consider whether a more substantial rally leg is underway.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jan 3, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: It’s payrolls week, so a couple of private sector jobs reports will help us to gauge sentiment ahead of Friday. And any noticeable reaction to a pre-open report is likely to be duplicated by post-open reports, of which there are two, with one being both high-profile and with its own track record of influencing price action.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
8-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET