S&P
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2512.75 | 2513.00 |
| …would target | 2521.00 | 2521.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2490.25 | 2490.75 |
| …would target | 2479.75 | 2480.25 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Buyers still trying.
Sellers not yet rejected.
Monday’s very late price action included a sell signal that was probed under 2494.00 by 6 points (before snapping back up 25 points). 
Now this morning’s 2468.00 open has produced a 26-point bounce to test 2494.00 as resistance.
And resistance has held. Also being tested was this morning’s 2493.00 bias-down signal, invoking the grace period and ultimately triggering late. Its reaction down is now retesting its 2483.25 bias-down target down to 2482.00.
Sellers weren’t isolated to the overnight, so a recovery can’t yet be dismissed. Certainly not by triggering late bias-down and already meeting its target. Exiting the bias environment rallying back above the bias-down parameters could trend back up to Monday’s 2510.00 highs.
The downside is meanwhile free to resume. Exiting the bias window under its target, and preferably deeper, would suggest that the open’s buyers had expended a lot of selling pressure without gaining traction for their effort.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Greeting the New Year down.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s gap up to 2505.50 was only a 61.8% retracement back to Friday’s late high, suggesting its buyers weren’t strong-handed. Firming overnight up to 2512.50 held within the retracement’s range for noise to suggest nothing different. And Monday’s open overlapped the morning’s open and 2504.50 bias-up target through the first 3 15-minute checkpoints to suggest that trending wasn’t likely. In fact, the session ultimately went only in circles, choppily fluctuating between Friday’s close below down to 2482.75, and the overnight highs above. The close was overlapping the 2505.50 retracement open, confirming that buyers weren’t strong-handed.
Overnight action’s new info…
Monday’s final minutes had dipped to 2488.00. Wild year-end mark-to-market volatility had triggered a 25-point surge snapped back up to through the close to touch 2513.00. Tuesday night’s open surged again to probe Monday’s highs up to 2521.25. By midnight, that had been reversed back under Monday’s lows down to 2479.00. Sliding sharply through Europe’s opens extended to 2452.25. Its reaction consolidated up to 2471.00, and then broke higher to 2478.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
If the for any higher high remains alive, then it’s likely to be by a wide margin, and not only to probe a fresh high. Meanwhile, the scenario for already having ended the temporary corrective bear market bounce seems unwilling to wait any longer. Its potential was discussed throughout Monday, with vulnerability to a year-end drop as everyone realizes the bounce into Thursday’s highs was the product of big money having front-run each other already. And if the timing were delayed, then its likely appearance would come earlier today rather than later — and the potential for first probing fresh highs is no longer part of the template. So, already reversing down shouldn’t find much more interim strength than to test Friday-Tuesday “higher prior lows” as resistance before extending down. Otherwise, any more strength through the open that isolates the overnight dip would suggest that the dip was being absorbed by a bigger rally.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2477.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2483.25 bias-down target through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2490.75 would be likely at least to trigger the 2493.00 bias-down signal at 10:15.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jan 2, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s calendar seems very light for a holiday-shortened week, but the remainder of the week will compensate. Meanwhile, the post-open report has a track record for influencing price action.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2509.00 | 2509.50 |
| …would target | 2517.50 | 2518.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2492.75 | 2493.00 |
| …would target | 2483.00 | 2483.25 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.