S&P
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight slide had extended down to 1876.50 before surging pre-open to attack 1884.00. Another 2-3 points higher could marginalize sellers for the day while targeting fresh highs well above 1900.00. But resuming the overnight slide could also resume the retracement of Sunday night’s gains, perhaps back down under Friday’s 1960.00 highs.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Still ticking.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Recall that Friday’s gap up had reacted down to test Thursday’s “lower prior highs” down to 1834.00. Its test held, and the balance of the session trended up relentlessly to test 1860.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open gapped up 5 points and had extended to 1890.00 by Monday morning. Its reaction down to 1880.00 was recovered up to 1885.00 at the noon hour Globex close. Monday night’s open rallied again, probing fresh highs up to 1892.75. That, too, reacted down — testing Monday’s reaction lows down to 1878.00, and up to 1885.00.
If, then…
Friday’s buyers had gained traction for their efforts. Sunday night and Monday night’s highs could easily qualify as their reward. But will it hold this morning, let alone extend higher? Holiday trading isn’t often duplicated on its second day, and Friday’s pre-holiday trending is often counter-trend. Nevertheless, not rejecting the interim rally would make higher highs likely, up to 1907.00 and 1920.00 before a new downleg would be credible.
First Trade…
Bias Parameters have been updated from those published at Friday’s close. Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1883.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 1878.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1875.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 1889.25 would be likely to trigger the 1885.00 bias-up signal.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1889.25 | 1885.00 |
| …would target | 1896.25 | 1892.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1882.75 | 1878.50 |
| …would target | 1875.75 | 1871.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Feb 16, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s Fed speaker is not a wholly unknown quantity, but enough so to make the market more likely to react. The pre-ope Fed survey has no track record for influencing price action.
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
*Patrick Harker Speaks
9:00 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET
Globex link to the chaRTroom
Sunday night’s open gapped up 5 points to 1865.00 and extended 15 more to 1880.00. Click here to view Globex action which trades through 1:00pm ET Monday,