S&P
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1864.50 | 1860.00 |
| …would target | 1871.25 | 1867.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1854.25 | 1850.00 |
| …would target | 1848.00 | 1843.50 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Exiting the afternoon bias environment above all prior intraday timing window highs is extremely difficult to reverse down on Fridays. And it often extends even higher. That was the case this week, as bounce targets into the 1860.00‘s began to be met.
That’s a Friday Factor, but so is the lack of credibility for actually extending higher. Weaker volume means weaker hands, so their gaining traction isn’t impressive as it would be on any other weekday. If anything, it suggests that sellers are being extra patient, which is potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective.
An immediate reversal down next week would be credible, but not much and not at all optimal — not like first testing 1867.00. Its recovery would suggest only a higher starting point to the decline’s eventual resumption.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Least resistance. Also: Early Market Wrap
Today’s post-market Wrap is early at 3:45pm ET.
Sellers had an opportunity to take today’s market back down. Back down hard. Back down into yesterday’s range and lower. Sellers tried to take today’s market back down at the open. And they failed.
Pretty much ever since then price has extended higher. The open’s dip touched yesterday’s “lower prior highs” down to 1833.50 and reversed up to within 1 tick of 1855.50. Overbought RSIs there helped a reversal through the noon hour to hold the afternoon’s 1846.00 bias-down signal as support. And now 1860.50 was just touched.
Pretty good, huh?
And that’s what the rally can do with thinning participation, focused on illiquidity ahead of a three-day holiday weekend. Just imagine what it might do when volume returns next week, and more time is available to hold risk…
Yah, just imagine.
PROGRAMMING NOTE: TODAY’S POST-MARKET WRAP BEGINS EARLY AT 3:45PM ET. AND BEING A HOLIDAY WEEKEND, THERE IS NO SATURDAY REVIEW.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s gap up to fresh highs had not extended higher intraday. Friday’s gap down formed an Island-type pattern, which is not an Island, since it is land-locked. So, momentum may now reverse down without interruption.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s blow-off high didn’t extend its overnight reaction down Friday. Regardless, a pullback would require retesting Thursday’s opening print before a durable top could be considered.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Having held its 15.80 target Thursday despite probing above it intraday, Friday’s sideways action helps to confirm that a lot of buying pressure was satisfied. But its 15.65 pullback limit held as support to keep alive momentum for at least retesting Thursday’ intraday high.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still trending up in blow-off mode Thursday, Friday’s rally was no catalyst for extending higher in any flight-to-safety. Instead it allowed for testing “lower prior highs” so that another bounce can test Wednesday’s gap up and neutralize its attraction above. (I wonder what could be the catalyst for that?)
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The 26.40 target was fulfilled Thursday. There remains room for noise below it to 25.63, which could be met on a retest since Friday’s gap up may be trying to begin forming a bottom.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness enabled the negative reaction to fill the gap back down to the week-old low close. Holding its test Friday doesn’t help to prove a bottom is forming, which only a rally at this stage can do — or a recovery from fresh intraday lows.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Feb 15, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: US markets are closed Monday for the President’s Day holiday. But futures open normally on Globex Sunday night and trade through the noon hour, before re-opening normally Monday evening.
US Holiday (Presidents Day)
Markets Closed
Globex close
1:00 PM ET
Globex open
6:00 PM ET