S&P
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight reaction down from testing the 1856.50 bias-up target has extended down to the 1832.00 overnight low and through it to 1827.25. That essentially retraces yesterday afternoon’s entire rally, which had originated too late to have been sponsored by strong hands. But now its attraction below is neutralized, so extending down post-open isn’t as assured.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Detour done.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Once again, gapping down to new relative lows, and trending down sharply intraday to 1821.75, were somewhat rescued by an afternoon surge back through the open’s highs. Monday afternoon’s rally started too late to be the product of strong hands, and negative territory was maintained, but overbought RSIs were left outstanding at the 1855.00 high.
Overnight action’s new info…
Monday’s closing dip to 1844.00 was retraced almost entirely into the futures close. Then it was extended much deeper overnight to 1832.00. Surging into and out of Europe’s open’s attacked Monday’s late 1855.00 high, and later probed it up to this morning’s 1856.50 bias-up signal.. Both reacted down to test 1840.00, currently down to 1837.50.
If, then…
Buyers didn’t gain traction for yesterday afternoon’s late rally, so extending higher this morning all but requires gapping up. The complete recovery overnight reflects an ability to extend higher, so probing higher without gapping up is possible — especially if opening above 1846.00 — albeit doomed to later reversal. Trending down through the open would target a retest of yesterday’s lows, and possibly resume the decline.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 1854.00 would be likely to trigger the 1850.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1846.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 1836.75 would be likely to trigger the 1840.00 bias-down signal at 10:15.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
The bias environment began lapsing by probing fresh session lows down to 1821.75. That was short-lived. Despite the position of weakness, the last hour rallied back up through the decline’s 1825.75 target to probe the open’s 1850.00 high up to 1855.00.
Not bad.
Its reaction down to 1844.00 barely began firming by the cash session close. But it was largely retraced after the close, attracted to retest the 1855.00 high whose RSIs were overbought.
Buyers didn’t gain traction for the late effort. So, extending higher Tuesday requires gapping up, preferably back above Friday’s 1866.00-1868.00 “higher prior lows.”
Regardless, it’s still not a durable bottom. And it’s for the same reason as the nearly three-week old 1805.00 low, which also magically recovered that afternoon from having substantially extended a deep gap down. Neither session represents capitulation
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1856.75 | 1850.75 |
| …would target | 1862.25 | 1856.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1845.75 | 1840.00 |
| …would target | 1840.50 | 1834.50 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWN AND BIAS-UP PARAMETERS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-close View… Bottomed out?
Rallying out of the final hour’s lows.
The bias environment exit trended down to fresh lows at 1821.75. The bias environment was not exited above a prior high. The final hour’s entry didn’t recover a prior high. No short-squeeze setup has formed.
Yet, the 3:10-3:20 window rallied to 1839.25.
That shouldn’t happen if the pattern is resolving down today. It’s getting too late both to absorb the bounce and to reject it. Had the rally originated earlier, then the 17-point rally could be 3 times that, and not required to fail. But this late timing is very suspicious.
Meanwhile, RSIs are overbought at the high. So, regardless of the likelihood for ultimately resolving down, reversing down now would be unlikely to extend — not without first retesting the overbought highs.