S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s dip has stopped optimistically short of filling the gap back to Wednesday’s 1.1095 close, but Monday’s gap down came within 1 pip before reversing up into positive territory above 1.1200, potentially on the way to fulfilling the outstanding minimum higher close.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s post-close extension higher wasn’t retested Sunday night until nearing Monday’s open, and then it extended sharply through it to nearly fulfill upside potential at 1203.00 compensated for the delay. Now a pullback has room down to 1185.00-1186.00 before signaling the rally’s momentum has lapsed.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Having held its pullback limit last week, the upside momentum remained intact for at least testing the bottoming pattern’s 15.45 target. Now pullbacks must hold tests of 15.30 to keep alive the upside momentum.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Plunging stocks triggered a flight-to-safety that surged through last week’s 164-07 high to test resistance at 165-28. Now holding 165-08/165-12 avoids signaling the rally’s resumption has failed (albeit pretty successful in the interim).
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Lower lows Sunday and Monday were still range-bound, although last week’s test of the 29.42 pullback limit was attacked. But just closing under 29.55 would target fresh lows at 27.40..
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up overnight and testing 2.17 was retraced to at least attack 2.10, near enough to “lower prior highs” that extending higher intraday Tuesday could confirm the recovery without leaving “unfinished business below” to inhibit further rallying.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Feb 9, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s Jobs Openings report is a follow-up to Friday’s payrolls. Its surprise quotient is derivative of its confirmation or contradiction to the low payrolls report.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Mid-day Update… Bounce time, or bottom?
Bouncing into the noon hour lacks isn’t terribly credible.
The 1925.75 objective was attacked to within 1 point at this morning’s lows. That’s 1 tick further away than would qualify as being satisfied.
3-minute RSI was on the cusp of being oversold, and 1-minute RSI was at least a little oversold, so retesting the low can’t be discounted.
An 8-point bounce fell back to almost touch the low, but now a 10-point bounce into the noon hour is touching this afternoon’s 1840.00 bias-up signal. The bias-up target is still well into negative territory. And nothing requires the low to hold a retest.
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1846.00 | 1840.00 |
| …would target | 1851.75 | 1846.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1832.50 | 1826.75 |
| …would target | 1823.75 | 1817.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Rulers of attraction.
Sellers gain reinforcements to push price lower.
Gapping down to the 1848.00-1849.00 area firmed only momentarily before diving to fresh lows at 1841.00. Another bounce probed the 1848.00-1849.00 area before resolving down again.
Eventually, fresh lows attacked 1833.00.
Now a bounce to 1843.00-1844.00 is trying to extend its recovery. It wants to extend. Recovering here could exit the bias environment with the objective of testing Friday’s range.
That reward would have been much more reliable if triggered a half-hour ago. Now a recovery is unlikely before extending down to 1825.75. So, bouncing any higher here would still encounter the 1848.00-1849.00 area’s resistance before further downside can be dismissed.