S&P
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The earlier drop to 1845.00 launched a bounce back up to 1856.50. Any higher through the opening 15 minutes would be likely to trend higher this morning. Its resistance already pushed price back down to a fresh low under 1844.00. But the open is being greeted within this leg’s cluster of targeted support around 1848.00-1849.00. Any lower through the opening 15 minutes would be likely to trend down.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.*
(This morning is the last chance for the new recording software to have fixed its video delay issue.)
The First Trade… Wake-up call.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Gapping down 9 points from 1910.00 in reaction to Friday’s pre-open Employment Situation report only worsened throughout the day. The net effect was to revisit the recent range’s lower-end around 1865.00. Only one week earlier, probing above the same range’s upper-end had triggered a breakout, which wasn’t confirmed on Monday. Sellers gained no traction for their effort, despite the afternoon probing fresh session lows.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s firm open extended higher to attack 1884.00. Dropping to 1877.00 was recovered to probe 1884.00, only to drop back down to 1877.00. One more bounce was the final bounce, suddenly plunging 39 points to attack 1845.00.
If, then…
Stopping optimistically shot of prior lows Friday didn’t resolve down immediately. Gapping down may not extend immediately. If The earlier hesitation and the overnight bounce suggest that gapping down could attract more optimism. The next lower relevant support is at 1849.00, now being tested, and its disposition through the open could define the morning’s trend.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1856.50 would be likely also to test the 1862.75 bias-down target as resistance. Exiting the open under 1848.00 would be likely to extend down through the bias environment.
Tonight’s Globex chaRTroom link
Overnight Globex opens at 6:00pm ET. Click the link below to monitor it. See you there…
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1894.50 | 1886.00 |
| …would target | 1899.00 | 1892.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1874.75 | 1868.25 |
| …would target | 1869.25 | 1862.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Firming into and out of the close didn’t finish until touching 1877.00. This neutralizes the upside attraction back to Friday afternoon’s bias-down signal. Selling may resume without hesitation and extend lower without inhibition. Unless Friday’s pessimism is corrected or rejected since its sellers gained no traction for their efforts. We’ll discuss the bigger picture at this weekend’s Saturday Review — its link will be sent overnight.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.