S&P
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1872.50 | 1865.00 |
| …would target | 1876.50 | 1869.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1853.25 | 1846.00 |
| …would target | 1847.50 | 1840.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS SIGNALS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Is it, or isn’t it? First of all, what’s the “it” — substantial corrective bounce, or durable bottom? Corrective bounce, maybe. But two “V” bottoms do not a durable bottom make.
Wednesday’s 2004.00 low reacted up throughout the afternoon tested 1869.00. Does the relentless feel of the afternoon rally make the bottoming attempt any more credible than a shallow bounce? The low’s RSIs diverged positively, while the next lower objective was neutralized. Overbought RSIs left outstanding at the high help to ensure its retest. And traction gained by the rally should be rewarded Thursday morning.
But Wreversal Wednesday? Durable bottom? That’s not so reliable considering the rally probed only temporarily back above Tuesday’s low without holding it. Strong-handed buying would have closed above 1865.00-1868.00 having probed it, or else patiently avoided it and reserved buying pressure.
Traction gained Wednesday afternoon can be rewarded by probing higher Thursday morning, while remaining vulnerable to resuming the decline. Probing higher after gapping up to and through 1881.00-1885.00 would be less likely to resume the decline soon. Otherwise, already rejecting the final hour’s surge above 1840.00 back under 1834.00 would be a big step to resuming the decline already.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Back to business?
Afternoon bounce has corrected the morning drop.
The decline’s next lowe4r objective was to retest the October 2014 “V” bottom at 1815.00.
1815.00 was tested soon afternoon. Then it was probed down to 1804.25. And then 1815.00 was recovered coming out of the noon hour, recovering both the 1807.00 bias-down target AND the 1813.25 bias-down signal.
The no-bias environment allowed room up to the 1828.00 bias-up signal. No-bias trending probed it up to 1840.00. Now the 1828.00 bias-up signal has been retraced to within 3 ticks.
Was all of that done just to refresh sellers? Recall that the three-week long decline has yet to produce a capitulative session. Today’s gap and the morning’s extension down don’t qualify without also trending down this afternoon.
Back above 1842.00 could marginalize sellers for the balance of the day. Otherwise, another downleg could get underway to new lows — resuming the decline next targeting 1780.00 (+/- 3 points) and 1750.00.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s weakness prevented closing above 1.0950, to maintain potential for reversing down to at least test 1.0750.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing the two-week old prior high above 1109.00 didn’t extend higher, which would fulfill the outstanding third higher close that became required by confirming the two-week old breakout.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Closing Wednesday above 14.10 could launch a new upleg by closing higher Thursday, too. The range otherwise persists.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Despite recovering intraday to probe the 161-09 overnight high by 9 ticks, the close was struggling to hold 160-12 as support whose break would all but seal a top.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending down sharply Wednesday to test 26.20 now has room up to 27.40 before suggesting a corrective bounce may be underway. Coverage rolls forward to Mar as the front-month, which trades now at a 1.75 premium to Feb. Also, EIA reports irregularly on Thursday due to the holiday-shortened week.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Narrow sideways ranging at or under 2.14 doesn’t greet Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength, but a knee-jerk reaction down would be capable of recovering.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jan 21, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Philly Fed is the only survey that has a track record of influencing price action. Reaction to it tends to be repeated by the day’s subsequent econ data, but there’s only the two EIA reports.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Survey
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM ET
10-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
.